Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 2/20/24
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“Software is eating the world, but AI is going to eat software.” – Jensen Huang, May 2017
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
US equity futures are trading slightly lower this morning, while Treasury yields are mostly flat from where they closed last Friday. Walmart (WMT) beat estimates and is trading up a little more than 2%, while Home Depot (HD) beat as well but is trading down about 2%.
While Walmart (WMT) has historically marked the unofficial end of earnings season each quarter, the fact that NVIDIA (NVDA) reports tomorrow means we should probably push that back a day.
NVIDIA (NVDA) has a lot to live up to when it comes to earnings. The stock is up 50% YTD already and now has a market cap of $1.8 trillion. As shown below, the stock has reported an earnings triple play on its Q4 earnings report for four years in a row and seven out of the last eight years coming into its Q4 2023 report tomorrow. Will anything less than another strong triple play be enough to satisfy investors?
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Asset Class and Stock Performance Since 10/27/23
Below is an updated look at our popular table that highlights the performance of various asset classes using key ETFs (or ETPs) traded on US exchanges. For each asset class, we show its performance since COVID hit on 2/19/20, since the current bull market began on 10/12/22, and since the low last quarter on 10/27/23.
Since October 27th (less than four months ago), the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is now up 22.8%. That’s a big move. The Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is up even more at 25.95%, and interestingly, the small-cap Russell 2,000 (IWM) is up nearly the same amount at 25.58%.
At the sector level, we’ve seen Technology (XLK) and Financials (XLF) gain the most since 10/27/23, while Energy (XLE) is up the least at just over 2.7%.
Outside the US, we’ve seen China (ASHR) actually fall 2.3% since 10/27, while Israel (EIS) is up 38%. Natural gas (UNG) is by far the worst performer in our table with a drop of 47%.
Looking at fixed income ETFs, the 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) is up 11.3% since 10/27/23, but it’s still down 30.37% on a total return basis since COVID hit in February 2020.
Below is a quick six-month chart of SPY so you can see the sharp move higher seen since 10/27:
Within the large-cap Russell 1,000, we’ve seen 12 stocks gain more than $100 billion in market cap since 10/27/23, including a $794 billion gain for NVIDIA (NVDA).
In terms of percentage gainers, below are the 20 best performing Russell 1,000 stocks since 10/27/23. Coinbase (COIN), Affirm (AFRM), and Coherent (COHR) are the three stocks up more than 100%, while Lyft (LYFT), SentinelOne (S), Karuna (KRTX), Uber (UBER), and Crowdstrike (CRWD) are all up more than 90%.
Not everything is up, though. Below are the 20 worst performing Russell 1,000 names since 10/27/23. SSR Mining (SSRM) has been the worst with a decline of 65.2%, followed by agilon health (AGL) with a drop of 60.2%. New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) is down 46.6%, while AMC Entertainment (AMC) is down a hair less at 46.34%.
The huge rally we’ve seen in some areas of the market has left a large number of stocks trading above their consensus analyst price target. As of today, nearly 16% of Russell 1,000 stocks were trading above their consensus analyst price target, and below are the ones the farthest above.
Coinbase (COIN) has been the best performing stock in the Russell 1,000 since 10/27, and it’s also now the farthest above where analysts think it should be trading. GameStop (GME) ranks second at 36.76% above its average analyst price target.
One last table…
Below is a list of stocks that have done well since 10/27 (up 20%+) but remain well below (20%+) their consensus analyst price target. These are names that have been rallying but analysts think there’s more gas in the tank.
Chart of the Day: Rolling Nasdaq 100 Returns
This content is for members onlyBespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report — February 2024
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
