Jun 26, 2024
The latest monthly data on home prices from S&P CoreLogic’s Case Shiller indices was released yesterday. These indices track home prices in 20 major cities/regions around the US.
At the national level, home prices hit another all-time high in April (the data is released on a two-month lag). Month-over-month, the National index rose 1.2%, and it’s up 6.3% year-over-year.
Below is a look at the Case Shiller National home price index since 1990 compared to inflation as measured by CPI. As shown, home prices are up more than 300% over this time frame, which is good enough for just over double the rate of inflation.
Below is a table showing the change in home prices over various points in time for the Case Shiller indices. Boston and San Francisco were up the most month-over-month with 2% gains. The only cities that weren’t up at least 1% month-over-month were DC, Miami, Tampa, and Phoenix, but even these cities all gained at least 0.5%. On a year-over-year basis, all twenty cities are up at least 1.5%, while the composite indices are up 6-8%.
In late 2022/early 2023, we saw a pullback in home prices following an initial post-COVID surge in 2020 and 2021. At this point, though, 13 of 20 cities are back to new highs after prices have gone back up 10%+ for most cities since their 2023 lows. San Francisco, Seattle, Phoenix, Portland, Dallas, Las Vegas, and Denver are the seven cities that aren’t back to new highs yet. As you probably noticed, most of these are cities on the west coast where inventories are a lot higher than they are in areas like the northeast.
Since just before COVID hit in February 2020, home prices are currently up about 50% nationally. Miami and Tampa are up the most since COVID with gains of 70%+, while San Francisco, Minneapolis, Portland, and DC are up the least.
Below are Case Shiller home price charts for the twenty cities and three composite indices. Cities highlighted in green are trading at all-time highs.
Jun 21, 2024
We publish a lot of market-related content each week, and we want to make sure you don’t miss the most important topics. Below are some charts and tables we view as “can’t miss” from the last week.
Breadth continued to be a major topic of discussion this week. In Tuesday’s Morning Lineup, we highlighted that seven of the last twenty trading days saw the S&P 500 close higher on the day even though there were more stocks in the index down on those days than up. A stretch like this hasn’t occurred since August 2020, when the mega-caps were rallying because of a theory that they would be the main beneficiaries of COVID lockdowns.
While the S&P 500 keeps making new highs, in Thursday’s Morning Lineup, we noted that Technology is the only major sector making new highs along with the index. Most sectors haven’t made new 52-week highs in a month or longer, highlighting the thinness of the recent rally.
To continue reading the rest of this week’s “Can’t-Miss” analysis, which includes another dozen or so important market-related topics, start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium today! With a two-week trial, you’ll also receive our daily research in your inbox as it gets posted. Go ahead and give it a try by signing up at this link.
Before you go…
Check out Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey’s appearance on CNBC if you missed it earlier this week. Click here or on the image below to view. Also, don’t miss our latest Conference Call Recaps and Triple Plays Report available with a trial!
Have a great weekend!
Jun 20, 2024
In today’s Chart of the Day we took a look at valuations across the Tech sector and how things stand relative to historical extremes. (It’s an eye-opening read, so make sure to check it out if you haven’t seen it yet.)
Below is a quick look at trailing 12-month price to sales ratios (P/S) over the last five years for the large-cap S&P 500 and small-cap Russell 2,000 along with each index’s respective Technology sector. As shown, the Russell 2,000’s price to sales ratio is just 1.25x, which is slightly below its average P/S ratio over the last five years. The Russell 2,000 Technology sector’s price to sales ratio is higher at 2.8x, but that’s still below the 2.9x P/S ratio for the S&P 500 as a whole. Incredibly, the S&P 500 Tech sector’s price to sales ratio has pushed all the way up to 9.8x, which is well above its high at the peak in late 2021. A 9.8x multiple is attractive if you’re looking at price to earnings (P/E), but for Tech stocks to be trading at 9.8x annual sales, that’s just a remarkably high number. (As mentioned, we’ve got further coverage of this topic in today’s Chart of the Day if you’d like to read more of our thoughts.)
Below is a look at the stocks in the large-cap Russell 1,000 that have seen the biggest increase in their price to sales (P/S) ratios since the current bull market began on 10/12/22. As shown, NVIDIA (NVDA) has seen its share price rise more than 1,000% during this bull market, but its P/S ratio has made 32 turns higher from 9.7x up to 41.9x! That’s by far the biggest jump of any stock in the index. Of the 30 stocks shown, the average P/S ratio has risen 9.6 points from 8.6x up to 18.2x, and most stocks on the list are Tech stocks.
