Oct 14, 2024
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“You can’t stay in your corner of the forest waiting for others to come to you. You have to go to them sometimes.” – A.A. Milne
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Dow futures are trading just south of the flat line this morning, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are trading slightly higher. There are no earnings reports to speak of today, but tomorrow morning we’ll hear from three more of the “big six” US banks and brokers: Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), and Goldman Sachs (GS).
The Q3 earnings season began last Friday with five companies reporting before the open. All five beat consensus EPS estimates, while four of five beat sales estimates (WFC was the lone miss). As shown below, four of the five companies that reported to kicks things off posted strong share-price gains on Friday. While BNY Mellon (BK) posted a “meh” reaction with a small drop of 0.4%, BlackRock (BLK) gained 3.6%, JP Morgan (JPM) gained 4.4%, Wells Fargo (WFC) gained 5.6%, and Fastenal (FAST) gained 9.8%. FAST’s 9.8% gain was its best earnings reaction day in five years, while Wells Fargo had its best earnings day since July 2022.
Oct 11, 2024
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
Oct 10, 2024
This week we got an update from the Schwab Trading Activity Index, also called the STAX. We initially covered this data in Tuesday’s Closer for subscribers, but we also wanted to highlight it here on Think BIG.
Whereas most investor sentiment readings like the AAII survey directly ask investors how they feel about the market, indicators like the STAX are derived by measuring what retail investors are actually doing in their accounts. In September, Schwab’s Trading Activity Index fell to 47.1, which is the lowest reading since January. That drop occurred even though the stock market continued to rally to new all-time highs.
The STAX data dates back to 2019, and as shown below, the index surged in late 2020 through late 2021 during the first post-COVID bull market when Americans were flush with stimulus cash and were actively bidding up pretty much everything that traded! At the time, the STAX index saw record highs with readings above 75 in June and November 2021. November 2021 was ultimately the peak for growth stocks before the bear market of 2022.
Notably, there’s a big difference between the STAX reading now versus 2021. The stock market is currently up 60%+ off the late 2022 lows and has registered 44 all-time highs already this year. Similarly, the market was also making a new high after a new high back in 2021. During this year’s rally, though, the STAX has remained quite subdued compared to going gangbusters in 2021. This tells us that there’s less complacency, enthusiasm, and overall interest in the market right now versus 2021 levels, which is good if you’re a long-term bull.
The Schwab STAX index was established in 2019, but before TD Ameritrade’s acquisition by Schwab, it had a counterpart index called the Investor Movement Index that featured data dating back over a decade. Standardizing the two indices shows they’ve had comparable readings with only minor discrepancies. As mentioned earlier, current sentiment levels are much more depressed than at the time of past record S&P 500 highs like in 2020/2021 and 2017. During those periods, these trader activity indices were well over 2 standard deviations above the historical average. Right now, they’re basically neutral, meaning retail investors are neither overly bullish or bearish.
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Oct 4, 2024
This week’s Bespoke Report is an updated version of our “Pros and Cons” edition for Q4 2024.
With this report, you’re able to get a complete picture of the bull and bear case for US stocks right now. It’s heavy on graphics and light on text, but we let the charts and tables do the talking!
On page three of the report, you’ll see a full list of the pros and cons that we lay out. Slides for each topic are then provided on page four and beyond.
To read this report and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, sign up for Bespoke’s 50/20 special today. Our 50/20 special gets you a full year of Premium for half off, then 20% off per month after the first year. SIGN UP HERE.
