Apr 1, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“On April Fools’ Day, believe nothing, trust no one, just like any other day.” – Unknown
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Below is a review of asset class performance in Q1 using our ETF matrix. For domestic index ETFs, it’s been a nasty run, although we’d note that seven of the eleven US sector ETFs finished the quarter higher.
Outside of the US, however, there was green nearly everywhere in Q1. While the S&P 500 (SPY) was down 4.3%, the all-world ex-US ETF (CWI) gained 5.9% during the quarter, and country ETFs like Brazil (EWZ), China (MCHI), France (EWQ), Germany (EWG), Italy (EWI), Spain (EWP), and the UK (EWU) were all up 10%+.
Commodity ETFs outside of agriculture also posted solid Q1 gains. Both gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) gained more than 15%, while natural gas (UNG) rose 28.6%. Fixed-income ETFs posted solid Q1 returns as well.
Within US equities, the mega-caps accounted for nearly all of the S&P 500’s Q1 drop. As shown below, the five largest stocks in the S&P all fell more than 10% in Q1, and the ten largest are down an average of 11.4% YTD. The rest of the stocks in the S&P 500 are down an average of just 0.6% YTD.
Mar 28, 2025
This week’s Bespoke Report is an updated version of our “Pros and Cons” edition for Q2 2025.
With this report, you’re able to get a complete picture of the bull and bear case for US stocks right now. It’s heavy on graphics and light on text, but we let the charts and tables do the talking!
On page three of the report, you’ll see a full list of the pros and cons that we lay out. Slides for each topic are then provided on page four and beyond.
To read this report and access everything else Bespoke’s research platform has to offer, sign up for Bespoke’s 50/20 special today. Our 50/20 special gets you a full year of Premium for half off, then 20% off per month after the first year. SIGN UP HERE.
Below is a look at the performance of key ETFs across asset classes since Election Day and Inauguration Day. International markets, defensives, precious metals, and Treasuries have been the only areas of strength during Trump 2.0. What’s the right acronym for that?
Mar 25, 2025
Yesterday was the 25th anniversary of the S&P 500’s closing high during the Dot Com Bubble. After rallying 14% in the month leading up to its peak on 3/24/2000, the S&P would go on to fall 25% over the next year and 49% at its low point in October 2002.
Had you bought the S&P 500 at the peak on 3/24/2000, you would have felt like the worst market timer in the world a year later. But eventually the market recovered, and if you rode it out and held through today, you would still have generated annualized gains of more than 7.5% if you bought on the day of the Dot Com Bubble peak. As the saying goes: time heals.
Within the Russell 1,000 (a larger large-cap index than the S&P 500), just over half of the stocks in the index now were around 25 years ago. These stocks have posted an average total return of more than 2,600% since 3/24/00. Just under 300 stocks in the index have been “10-baggers” in the last 25 years, meaning they’ve gone up 10x. But there are also nineteen stocks in the index that have been “100-baggers” since 3/24/00, meaning they’ve gone up at least 10,000%.
Below is a list of these nineteen “100-baggers.” For each stock, we provide its percentage change since 3/24/00, how much a $1,000 investment in the stock on 3/24/00 would be worth today, and a brief one-sentence description of what the company does.
While you may think that Tech stocks would dominate the list of biggest winners over the last 25 years, that’s not the case. Of the nineteen “100-baggers,” just four are in the Technology sector, while there are five Industrials and five Consumer Discretionary stocks.
The biggest winner by far, though, is a Consumer Staples stock: gas-station/convenience store energy-drink maker Monster Beverage (MNST). A $1,000 investment in MNST on 3/24/00 would be worth — wait for it — $1.275 million today! That’s double the return of the second-best performer — NVIDIA (NVDA).
Notably, Apple (AAPL) is the second-best performing Tech stock behind NVDA with a gain of 20,821%. It’s the stocks that sit just above and below Apple that are more interesting. Just above AAPL sits a farming supply retailer — Tractor Supply (TSCO) — with a gain of 26,036%, while an auto parts retailer — O’Reilly Auto (ORLY) — sits just below AAPL with a gain of 16,381%.
Below are some of the things that other 100-baggers do:
-Provides less-than-truckload freight shipping services (ODFL)
-Makes commercial and residential kitchen equipment (MIDD)
-Develops credit scoring and analytics software (FICO)
-Offers hazardous waste disposal and environmental services (CLH)
-Distributes HVAC equipment and refrigeration products (WSO)
-Provides kidney dialysis and healthcare services (DVA)
Good businesses that can execute can be found in any industry!
Along with the 25th anniversary of the Dot Com Bubble, 3/23 was the fifth anniversary of the market’s low point during the COVID Crash in 2020. Along with highlighting 100-baggers over the last 25 years, below is a list of stocks that have been 10-baggers (up at least 10x) in the last five years since the COVID low.
What’s most remarkable about this list is how many Energy stocks there are. Four of the five biggest winners are domestic oil and natural gas stocks: Antero Resources (AR), Targa Resources (TRGP), Matador Resources (MTDR), and Permian Resources (PR). Antero is up the most with a gain of just under 5,000%. The only non-Energy stock in the top five is bitcoin-holder MicroStrategy (MSTR), which is up 2,867% since 3/23/20.
Rounding out the top ten are video-game seller GameStop (GME), server-seller Super Micro (SMCI), energy-drink maker Celsius (CELH), AI chip-king NVIDIA (NVDA), and another oil and gas play: Ovintiv (OVV).
Other notables on the list of 10-baggers over the last five years include Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), Vertiv (VRT), Dillard’s (DDS), Comfort Systems (FIX), Vistra (VST), Quanta Services (PWR), Builders FirstSource (BLDR), and Broadcom (AVGO).
