Apr 11, 2025
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We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
Apr 7, 2025
Since President Trump’s second term began with the Inauguration on January 20th, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is down 16.5% compared to a 6.2% drop for the all world ex US ETF (CWI). A ten percentage point gap in performance in less than three months is significant. It’s early, but the rest of the world is solidly beating US markets so far under Trump 2.0.
Below is a table showing the performance of 45 country ETFs available to US investors since the close last Wednesday just before the President’s Rose Garden announcement of reciprocal tariffs that were orders of magnitude higher than the market expected.
The average country ETF is down exactly 10% in the two and a half trading days since Trump’s “Liberation Day,” and the only two down less than 5% are India (INDA) and Turkey (TUR).
Of the G7 countries, the US (SPY) has been the third worst with a drop of 11.2%. The UK (EWU) and Italy (EWI) are down more at -13.3%, while Germany (EWG), Japan (EWJ), Canada (EWC), and France (EWQ) have fallen a little bit less than the US.
Norway (ENOR), Greece (GREK), Poland (EPOL) and China (MCHI) are the four country ETFs down more than 14% since last Wednesday’s close, while Vietnam (VNAM) — a country punished with a 45% tariff even though they only tariff the US roughly 5% — is down a tad less than SPY with a drop of -11%.
Apr 2, 2025
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“There is no terror in the bang, only in the anticipation of it.” – Alfred Hitchcock
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The S&P 500 put in a closing low on March 13th that established the first major low of this correction. So far, we’ve managed to hold above that level, but it’s the one to watch going forward. A close below the 3/13 low will mark a resumption of the downtrend that’s in place. For bulls, the next step in breaking the downtrend would be a close above last Tuesday’s high and then a series of higher highs and higher lows that eventually takes the index to new all-time highs. You can see the process that played out when we had the last major pullback in July/August in the chart below:
