Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/6/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other peoples’ money.” – Margaret Thatcher
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
We’re now in the back half of the Q3 earnings season, and probably the most consequential data point we’re seeing coming out of this season is continued strength in forward guidance.
Last earnings season was the first one following the tariff tantrum of the spring, and investors were pleasantly surprised that more companies raised guidance than lowered guidance. That trend has continued in a big way this season, and with more than 1,000 companies reporting Q3 numbers thus far, we’ve seen 14% raise guidance compared to just 6% that have lowered guidance. As shown below, our guidance spread chart, which shows the percentage of companies raising minus lowering guidance on a rolling three-month basis, has spiked to a level we’ve only seen once before, which was the period coming out of the COVID Crash in 2020. These big spikes in guidance have historically happened in the early part of periods following max uncertainty.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 11/5/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“When it is darkest there is always light ahead.” – Roald Amundsen
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
While New York City elected a democratic socialist to be its next mayor last night, today is the first anniversary of the 2024 Presidential Election. Below is a look at the S&P 500’s percentage change over the last year compared to its change in the year after President Trump’s first election victory in 2016. While the two paths diverge in the middle part of the chart because of the “tariff tantrum” seen earlier this year, the full-year performance for the S&P following the 2016 and 2024 Elections is now very similar. We’ll be looking at stock market performance during the Presidential Election Cycle in more detail in today’s Chart of the Day, so keep an eye out for that if you have an interest.
Below is our asset class performance matrix showing total returns across a range of ETFs in the year after the 2024 Election versus the year after the 2016 Election.
While large-cap domestic equity ETFs posted strong gains in the first year after Trump’s 2016 and 2024 wins, there are a lot of areas that have done a lot worse this time around.
The biggest disparities show up in small and mid-cap ETFs. In the year after the 2016 Election, we saw similar 20%+ gains across the market-cap spectrum. This time around, small-caps and mid-caps have been left in the dust, while large-caps have surged.
As an example, the S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) is up 27.8% since last year’s Election, while the Smallcap 600 Growth ETF (IJT) is up just 0.55%.
Looking at sector ETFs, Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were up similar amounts, but Health Care (XLV), Materials (XLB), and Real Estate (XLRE) have been much weaker in the last year compared to the year after the 2016 Election.
Outside of the US, we’ve seen most country ETFs post huge gains since the 2024 Election, while their returns were much more muted in the year after the 2016 Election.
Finally, gold (GLD) and silver (SLV) have been two of the best performing ETFs in the entire matrix since Trump’s 2024 victory, but they were down in the year after his first victory.
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report – November 2025
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more. The report also has numerous proprietary US economic data points that are extremely timely and useful for investors.
We’ve just released our most recent monthly report to Pulse subscribers, and it’s definitely worth the read if you’re curious about the health of the consumer in the current market environment. Start a 30-day free trial for a full breakdown of all of our proprietary Pulse economic indicators.
