Good Riddance?
Based on his public comments towards now-former Fed Chair Jerome Powell, no one will be happier to see new leadership at the Federal Reserve than President Trump.
The chart below shows the S&P 500’s performance during Powell’s tenure, which has been much better than the President’s rhetoric towards the former Fed chair would suggest. During this period, the S&P 500 has more than doubled from under 3,000 to over 7,000. While the point-to-point gains have been strong, it’s been a pretty volatile ride.
The lower chart shows the S&P 500’s drawdowns from all-time highs throughout Powell’s tenure. During that time, the S&P 500 experienced two bear markets and two near-bear markets in which the S&P 500 declined close to 20%. In most cases, though, the declines were short-lived, and outside the 2022 bear market, after each prior bear or near-bear, the S&P 500 was back at new highs within weeks or months.
Through Friday morning, right up to the swearing-in ceremony, the S&P 500’s annualized gain during Powell’s tenure was 13.4%. Relative to Powell’s peers, the only Fed Chair since WWII who presided over a stronger stock market was Paul Volcker. Powell’s performance is tied with William Miller, who preceded Volcker, but he was chairman for less than two years, or less than a quarter of the time Powell had the same role.
President Trump is almost certainly thinking good riddance today, but from a strictly stock market perspective, it doesn’t get much better, or as the President or new Fed Chair would probably say, “at least not yet.”
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/22/26 – Earnings Season into Summer Season
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“Great ideas come from everywhere if you just listen and look for them.” – Sam Walton
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If you don’t cut out early for the holiday weekend, make sure to check out Paul Hickey on Making Money with Charles Payne today at 2 PM.
The S&P 500 is looking to extend its streak of gains to eight weeks, and futures are cooperating so far. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are indicated to open 0.15% higher, although they’ve given up much of their earlier gains as crude oil rallies about 2%. Treasury yields are lower, although the 10-year yield still sits above 4.55%. Gold and Bitcoin are both down about 0.5%.
It was another positive session in Asia, as the Nikkei rallied 2.7%, taking its weekly gain to 3.1%, while South Korea rallied 0.4% to finish nearly 5% higher for the week. Chinese stocks also traded up, with the Shanghai Composite rallying 0.9% but still finishing modestly lower for the week.
The catalyst for last night’s rally was weaker-than-expected April CPI, with core rising 1.4% y/y relative to expectations for 1.7%. Also, in South Korea, the index of Consumer Confidence for May jumped from 99.2 to 106.1.
It’s been a broadly positive day for equities in Europe. The STOXX 600 is up 0.5%, taking its weekly gain to more than 2.5%. Germany is leading the way for the week with a gain of 3.4%, while Italy is up less than half a percent. These gains come despite some hawkish commentary from ECB officials concerning inflation.
The only economic report on the US calendar this morning is the Michigan Sentiment report, which continues to hang around near all-time lows even as the stock market sits near all-time highs. Also, since it’s the Friday before a holiday weekend, the bond market closes at 2 PM today, so look for activity to really dry up in the afternoon.
Earnings season came to an unofficial end with Walmart’s (WMT) report on Thursday, and what an earnings season it was. Heading into the reporting period, we highlighted the pace of negative revisions as a bullish contrarian signal, and it played out, as results and guidance both came in much better than expected.
From April 10th through yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 gained 9.2%, which ranked as the best earnings season (Friday before the first large banks start to report through WMT) since the same reporting period last year, coming out of the tariff-tantrum. Back then, it was a similar backdrop; amidst tariff uncertainty, companies had little incentive to give upbeat outlooks, but that’s exactly what we saw. This earnings season saw a similar story unfold, with the main difference being that tariff uncertainty was swapped out and replaced with the war in Iran.
The chart below shows the S&P 500’s performance during earnings seasons since the start of 2009, and while the market rallies an average of 2.2% during earnings season, the 9.2% gain during this earnings season ranks as the fifth best since the start of 2009. The only better ones were coming out of the financial crisis, two quarters coming out of the 2022 bear market, and finally, the Q1 earnings season last year.
Looking ahead, coming out of the unofficial start to summer next week, the S&P 500’s historical performance in the week after Labor Day has been a gain of 0.52% (median: 0.61%) with positive returns 61.8% of the time. The best post-Memorial Day week was a gain of 7.2% in 2000, which turned out to be a major false alarm, while the only two years when the S&P 500 declined 3%+ during the week were in 1973 and 2012.
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The Closer – Where’s the Beef?, IPO, PMI – 5/21/26
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- One source of inflation that has not eased is beef prices as live cattle futures currently sit near records of $2.40/lb.
- US flash PMIs from S&P Global were stronger than international peers, especially for the manufacturing sector.
- While the single-family housing market remains challenged by high rates, multifamily starts are +20% YoY and at new cycle highs.
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Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Walmart (WMT)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Walmart (WMT) Q1 2027 earnings call.
Walmart (WMT) is the world’s largest retailer, with over 10,900 stores and clubs worldwide including Walmart, Sam’s Club, and Flipkart in India. Because it sells almost everything to everyone, it’s one of the best windows into how the everyday consumer is actually doing. The biggest story this quarter was the growing divide between shoppers. Lower-income customers are clearly feeling the pinch. The average gas fill-up at Walmart stations fell below 10 gallons for the first time since 2022. Higher-income households, meanwhile, are spending without much hesitation. Walmart absorbed $175M in surprise fuel costs yet still held its full-year guidance. Online sales grew 26%, the US third-party marketplace was up nearly 50%, and Walmart can now deliver to 60% of the country in 30 minutes or less. Its AI shopping tool, Sparky, more than doubled active users in just one quarter, and shoppers using it spend 35% more per order. Advertising and membership now make up roughly a third of total earnings, growing 37% and 17% respectively. WMT shares are down approximately 7% today after reporting better-than-expected revenue and in-line EPS…
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Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Toll Brothers (TOL)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Toll Brothers’ (TOL) Q2 2026 earnings call.
Toll Brothers (TOL) builds luxury homes and master-planned communities across the US, serving affluent move-up, first-time luxury, and active-adult buyers. The company stands out for its high-end locations and large Design Studio upgrade business. Toll also offers insight into upper-income consumer health, housing demand at the luxury end of the market, land competition, and how wealthy buyers are reacting to rates, stock market volatility, and economic uncertainty. TOL beat revenue and EPS estimates in a housing market most builders still describe as difficult. Management said affluent buyers remain resilient thanks to stock market gains, home equity, and wage growth, with 23% of buyers paying all cash and mortgage Loan-to-Values (LTVs) averaging just 69%. Florida and Austin were standout markets, including a West Palm Beach community selling $3 million homes at a $2 million monthly pace with low-30% gross margins. The company also highlighted progress in reducing finished spec inventory by 28%, selling homes earlier in construction to drive more high-margin Design Studio spending. On better-than-expected results, TOL shares rose 8.5% on 5/20…
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Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: CAVA (CAVA)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers CAVA’s (CAVA) Q1 2026 earnings call.
CAVA (CAVA) operates one of the fastest-growing restaurant concepts in the US, serving customizable Mediterranean bowls, pitas, salads, dips, and proteins through a fast-casual format that prides itself on healthier options and convenience without heavy discounting. The company has become a standout traffic story in restaurants by attracting both higher-income customers trading up to premium items like steak and salmon, and lower-income customers still willing to spend for fresher food and perceived value. CAVA reported 9.7% same-store sales growth driven by 6.8% traffic growth, while many peers continue reporting sluggish consumer demand. Management said strength remained broad across regions and income groups, with lower-income consumers actually outperforming despite macro uncertainty and rising fuel costs. The company said new restaurants are opening above 100% productivity with $3 million AUVs and highlighted strong guest response to white sweet potatoes and its new nationwide salmon launch. Executives also emphasized investments in labor, hospitality, loyalty engagement, and internally built AI and data systems aimed at predictive prep, staffing, and personalized marketing. Shares were up 3% on 5/20 in reaction to EPS and revenue beats…
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Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: NVIDIA (NVDA)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers NVIDIA (NVDA) Q1 2027 earnings call.
NVIDIA (NVDA) designs the chips and software that power modern AI. Its GPUs are the engine behind virtually every major AI model being built and run today, making Nvidia the closest thing the industry has to a toll booth on the entire AI economy. Revenue hit $81.6 billion, up 85% from a year ago, with the sequential jump of $13.5 billion from last quarter setting a new company record in dollar terms. Agentic AI, meaning AI that can actually do useful work on its own, has arrived, and every major AI lab is racing to produce more tokens on Nvidia hardware. Blackwell, its current flagship chip, achieved the fastest product ramp in the company’s history, with data center revenue reaching $75 billion, up 92% year over year. VeraRubin, the next chip platform, ships in Q3, and management expects every major AI lab to adopt it immediately, projecting up to 35x higher inference throughput compared to Blackwell. Vera, a brand-new standalone processor built specifically for AI agents, opens a $200 billion market that NVDA has never competed in before, with nearly $20 billion in CPU revenue already in sight for this year. China is still completely excluded from guidance, and there is no visibility on when that will change. NVDA shares are down 1.7% after reporting a triple play…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 5/21/26 – Stocks High, Sentiment Low
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“To have a comeback, you have to have a setback.” – Mr. T
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Equity futures this morning are lower, but it’s not because of Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. Those are basically shaping up to be a non-event. The culprit this morning is news out of Iran, as the country’s Supreme Leader said that the country will not let its enriched uranium leave the country. That lowers the odds of a peaceful solution, which has oil prices moving higher and equity prices lower. The S&P 500 looks to open down about 0.4% while the Nasdaq is down 0.6%.
As mentioned, crude oil is up about 3%, treasury yields are higher, gold is down about 0.6%, and Bitcoin is fractionally lower.
In Asia, Japan rallied 3.1% while South Korea surged more than 8% as the strike at Samsung was averted. China bucked the positive tone, though, and fell 2%. In Europe, equities are lower across the board with the STOXX 600 down 0.3% as flash PMI indices for the region largely missed expectations.
It’s been a busy morning for data already in the US, and the results have been mixed. Jobless claims were basically in line with forecasts, the Philly Fed for May missed expectations, while Building Permits and Housing Starts came in better than expected.
For all the focus the media puts on Nvidia (NVDA) earnings, the stock is poised to gap up 0.52% today as the market rates the report a snoozer. To put that in perspective, shares of Walmart (WMT) are priced to gap down 2.4% at the open. Today’s moves continue a trend where a relatively ‘boring’ stock like WMT has had a more volatile initial reaction to earnings than NVDA. Including today’s reaction, shares of WMT have had a larger gap (in terms of magnitude) than NVDA for six of the last eight quarters. While NVDA’s average gap on earnings reaction days in the last eight quarters has been 2.6%, WMT’s average gap has been +/-3.6%.
The S&P 500 closed within 0.2% of a 52-week high yesterday, so you would expect investors to feel more optimistic, but the latest sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed the opposite. In this week’s survey, bullish sentiment declined from 39.3% down to 31.7% while bearish sentiment spiked up to 43.6% for a bull-bear spread of -11.9. Historically, when the S&P 500 was within 1% of a 52-week high, the bull-bear spread was positive 14.6!
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Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Home Depot (HD)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Home Depot (HD) Q1 2026 earnings call.
Home Depot (HD) is the world’s largest home improvement retailer with 2,360+ stores serving both homeowners and professional contractors across virtually every repair, renovation, and construction category. It’s the first call to make if you want a read on the American housing market. Q1 was steady but uninspiring, with sales up 4.8% to $41.8B and same-store sales up just 0.6%. The housing market freeze remains the central drag. With mortgage rates elevated and existing home sales below 4 million, homeowners are avoiding big renovation projects, and management was candid that their improved second-half outlook is essentially a bet on storm activity returning to normal after a historically quiet 2025. The biggest news was the acquisition of Mingledorff’s, an HVAC distributor across five Southeastern states, opening up a $100B market and pushing HD’s total addressable market to $1.2T. Professional contractors remain the bright spot, with online sales up 10%+ for the fourth straight quarter and contractor credit programs gaining traction. Tariffs and rising fuel costs are quietly building margin pressure, though HD has filed for tariff refunds as a potential offset. Full-year guidance was left unchanged at flat to 2% same-store sales growth. HD moved up 0.8% on better-than-expected results…
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The Closer – Fed Minutes, NVIDIA (NVDA) Earnings, Stockpiles – 5/20/26
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- Today’s release of the FOMC Minutes confirmed that a rump of hawkish members believe that the FOMC should remove the dovish bias from their statement.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings showed that data center revenues continue to power growth with compute up 76.8% YoY and networking up 199% YoY.
- Petroleum inventories have drawn by a record degree over the past month while net exports hover near record highs.
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