The Closer – Clear Verdict, Housing Affordability, Oil Ranges – 6/23/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we start out with commentary on what the market’s verdict is for the Iran situation (page 1). We then review the latest housing data (page 2) including a look at affordability (page 3). We then finish with a rundown into crude oil’s volatile session (page 4).
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Ever Volatile Tesla (TSLA)
Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Waymo now has competition as Tesla (TSLA) rolled out its robotaxi software this weekend. The EV giant’s autonomous taxis took their inaugural rides in Austin, Texas for a limited number of invite-only customers. Given that limited initial release, it’s fair to say that the robotaxi still has some time left until they are a common site like Ubers (UBER), Lyfts (LYFT), and Waymos in select cities, but nonetheless, robotaxis are now on the road. In response to this news, shares of Tesla (TSLA) are surging. At intraday highs, the stock was up 10%+, and although it has pulled back since then, it is still up an impressive 9.4% as of this writing. That ranks in the 98th percentile of daily gains since the stock first hit the public market 15 years ago this month.
As shown in the chart above, while the move today is large, there’s actually been plenty of precedent for as large, if not larger, moves in the past several months. In fact, today’s move is only the largest gain since April 25th when it was up 9.8%, and it was up an even larger 22.7% on April 9 after the announcement of the reciprocal tariff suspension by President Trump. Putting all this context together, in the chart below we show TSLA’s average daily change (in absolute terms) on a rolling six-month basis. As shown, the only time daily volatility has been higher for TSLA was during the early days of COVID.
Along with high daily volatility, Tesla (TSLA) has had a roller-coaster ride over the last year with four 20%+ rallies and four 20%+ declines. After rallying 150% in the back half of 2024, TSLA fell more than 50% earlier this year. The stock most recently fell 21% over a 9-day stretch from May 27th through June 5th when Elon Musk was fighting with President Trump online. Since the 5th, things have settled down, and the stock has quickly bounced back by 23%.
To get a read on how common it is for Tesla (TSLA) to see this sort of volatility, in the charts below we show the number of TSLA 20%+ rallies and declines by year since its IPO 15 years ago. Since its IPO, TSLA has averaged 4.25 bull/bear market cycles per year. It has already seen five in 2025.
In the second chart below, we show the number of these rallies and declines per year only through the month of June. Again, 2025 has already seen 5 of these rallies and declines, which surpasses the four seen in 2021 and 2022 for a new record.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/23/25 – Anything Happen This Weekend?
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“At some stage therefore, we should have to expect the machines to take control.” – Alan Turing
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
We can all give good rationalizations of why futures have seen such a muted reaction to the Iran news over the weekend, but isn’t that the way hindsight always works? If you had asked anybody to predict how markets would react to a US bombing of targets in Iran, no one would have said a gain of less than 1% in crude oil and no change in S&P 500 futures.
This morning’s muted reaction to the weekend’s events is also a microcosm of the market’s YTD performance. Heading into the final week of the first half, there has been no shortage of market catalysts and subsequent volatility, but here we are with the S&P 500 little changed (up less than 1.5%) on the year. Since WWII, 2025 ranks as just the 12th time (out of 81) that the S&P 500 has been up or down less than 2% heading into the final week of the first half.
The chart below shows the S&P 500’s performance during the last week of the first half in each year since 1945. Overall, the median performance has been a decline of 0.13%, with positive returns just 51% of the time, so it hasn’t typically been a positive week for stocks. More recently, performance has been even weaker with negative returns in nine of the last eleven years and a median decline of 0.29%.
Brunch Reads – 6/22/25
Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of some of our favorite articles over the past week. The links are mostly market-related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well. We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.
Operation Barbarossa: On June 22, 1941, the largest land invasion in history began. Adolf Hitler’s surprise attack on the Soviet Union, Operation Barbarossa, began with over three million German soldiers, 3,000 tanks, and waves of Luftwaffe bombers streaking across the sky. For months, Stalin ignored warnings from Western intelligence and even his own spies. Despite the German buildup along the border, the Soviet leader clung to the illusion that the Nazi-Soviet non-aggression pact of 1939 still held weight. He was wrong.
The German offensive stretched across a thousand miles, from the Baltic Sea in the north to the Black Sea in the south. Soviet airfields were decimated in the opening hours. Entire divisions were encircled and destroyed before they could organize. The Wehrmacht, hardened from campaigns in Poland and France, advanced with scary speed, aiming to crush the Red Army before winter set in.
But winter came early, brutal, and unforgiving. German troops, ill-equipped for the subzero temperatures, froze in place outside Moscow. Their engines stalled, weapons jammed, and frostbite spread through the ranks. Desperation set in. Civilians and soldiers alike burned villages for warmth, while food shortages became catastrophic. In some encircled units, reports of cannibalism emerged. That was grim evidence of the campaign’s collapse. Meanwhile, the Red Army, better adapted to the cold and fighting for survival on its own soil, launched a fierce counteroffensive. The tide had turned.
In Moscow, Stalin reemerged and rallied his people, framing the conflict as a patriotic war for Russia’s existence. What had begun as a lightning strike meant to decapitate the Soviet Union devolved into a grinding, merciless war of attrition. It would bleed Germany dry and ultimately help seal Hitler’s downfall.
Science
New blood test can detect cancer 3 years before you start showing symptoms (New York Post)
Johns Hopkins scientists have developed a blood test that spotted signs of cancer up to three years before diagnosis by detecting bits of tumor DNA in the bloodstream, offering a glimpse of how early detection could improve survival odds. The test isn’t FDA-approved yet, but it’s part of a growing push to catch deadly cancers like colon and pancreatic far earlier than current screenings allow. [Link]
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Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call Recaps: Kroger (KR)
Bespoke’s Conference Call Recaps use AI to summarize lengthy earnings calls. The commentary below is AI-generated and then edited by Bespoke for quality control. As always, none of these summaries should be construed as recommendations to buy or sell any securities, and investors should do their own research and/or consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
Our latest recap available to Bespoke subscribers covers Kroger’s (KR) Q1 2025 earnings call.
Kroger (KR) is one of the largest grocery retailers in the United States, operating nearly 2,800 stores under banners like Kroger, Ralphs, and Fred Meyer. It serves millions of households each week, from traditional supermarkets to marketplace stores and digital platforms. Kroger is also a major player in private label brands through Simple Truth and Private Selection, and operates its own pharmacies, fuel centers, and retail media business. KR reported 3.2% identical sales growth excluding fuel, with strength in pharmacy, e-commerce (up 15%), and fresh categories. Private label brands outpaced national competitors for the seventh straight quarter, and the company is launching 80 new protein SKUs. Leadership emphasized cost discipline and capital efficiency, announcing 60 store closures and a renewed focus on high-ROIC projects. The e-commerce business remains unprofitable but showed its best quarterly margin improvement yet. Consumers are trading down, eating at home more, and favoring value, while shrink improved due to AI-driven inventory tools. Tariff exposure is limited, and GLP-1 prescriptions continue to lift pharmacy sales. On mixed results, KR shares were up 10% on 6/20…
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Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/20/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“There, where I have passed, the grass will never grow again.” – Attila the Hun
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s a quiet Friday morning so far, so below is an updated look at where the mega-caps stand heading into this final trading day of the week. While seven of eight are all more than 5% above their 50-day moving averages, Apple (AAPL) remains stuck in a downtrend and is 2.6% below its 50-DMA.
The last six months have been a struggle for Apple (AAPL), which is sitting below $200/share after peaking just below $260 on the day after Christmas 2024.
The Closer – SEP, TICs, Housing – 6/18/25
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Looking for deeper insight into markets? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we lead off with a recap of the FOMC and the more important Summary of Economic Projections (page 1). We also check in on the release of the TICS data (page 2). Next, we review the latest residential construction figures (page 3) including a look at affordability (page 4). We finish with an update on the latest crude inventory readings (page 5).
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Homebuilder Sentiment Down as Inventories Build
Yesterday, the NAHB published its latest monthly update on homebuilder sentiment. The headline sentiment index continued to deteriorate falling 2 points to 32, the lowest reading since December 2022.
In the table below, we show each component of the index in addition to its month-over-month change and how they rank as a percentile of their full histories. Indices declined for both present and future sales, resulting in each one now sitting in the bottom quartile of historical readings. The largest declines were observed in the regional data as the Northeast experienced a bottom decile monthly decline and the South experienced a bottom 1% decline.
These latest dips in sentiment come as inventories continue to rise, especially in the South and West. Homebuilder sentiment in both of these regions fell to their lowest levels since 2012 this month, and as shown below, these are the two regions where active listings (homes for sale) have spiked the most.
The Triple Play Report — 6/18/25
An earnings triple play is a stock that reports earnings and manages to 1) beat analyst EPS estimates, 2) beat analyst sales estimates, and 3) raise forward guidance. You can read more about “triple plays” at Investopedia.com where they’ve given Bespoke credit for popularizing the term. We like triple plays as an indication that a company’s business is firing on all cylinders, with better-than-expected results and an improving outlook. A triple play is indicative of positive “fundamental momentum” instead of pure fundamentals, and there are always plenty of names with both high and low valuations on our quarterly list.
Bespoke’s Triple Play Report highlights companies that have recently reported earnings triple plays, and it features commentary from management on triple-play conference calls, company descriptions and analysis, and price charts. Bespoke’s Triple Play Report is available at the Bespoke Institutional level only. You can sign up for Bespoke Institutional now and receive a 14-day trial to read this week’s Triple Play Report, which features 17 new stocks. To sign up, choose either the monthly or annual checkout link below:
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Ambarella (AMBA) is an example of a company that recently reported an earnings triple play after the close on 5/29. It was the company’s fifth straight triple play, although the last two have gotten more pushback from investors as the stock most recently sold off 15.1% on 5/30.
Here’s how AI describes the company: Ambarella (AMBA) is a semiconductor company specializing in low-power, high-performance system-on-chips (SoCs) that enable advanced computer vision, edge AI processing, and image signal processing across a range of end markets. Founded in 2004, the company originally gained recognition for powering HD and Ultra HD video in consumer devices such as GoPro cameras and drones, but has since evolved into a critical enabler of intelligent vision applications. Today, Ambarella’s SoCs are widely used in automotive ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems) and autonomous driving, security cameras, industrial robotics, and other edge AI applications, where real-time object detection, tracking, and semantic segmentation are vital. The company’s edge AI portfolio, including its CVflow® architecture and most recently its AI domain controller solutions, is designed to reduce latency, enhance energy efficiency, and improve inference accuracy by processing data on-device rather than in the cloud. As demand grows for smarter, connected devices in automotive and industrial settings, Ambarella positions itself as a key player in the convergence of AI, vision processing, and embedded systems.
Ambarella reported Q1 revenue of $85.9 million, up 58% YoY, with record edge AI revenue, which now makes up over 75% of total sales. IoT sales rose mid-single digits sequentially, comprising roughly three-quarters of total revenue, while automotive dipped slightly QoQ but grew over 20% YoY. Management raised full-year revenue growth guidance to 19–25% (from 15–19% prior), citing success with its CVflow edge AI SoCs. The earnings call highlighted growing opportunities beyond traditional security cameras into other verticals such as industrial automation, wearables, conferencing, and fleet telematics, as well as growing adoption across global auto OEMs. A major focus is the emerging edge AI infrastructure market, where Ambarella is layering AI capabilities between endpoints and the cloud, supported by its third-gen AI accelerator. Management reaffirmed confidence in second-half growth, despite caution around geopolitical and tariff-related uncertainty.
Looking at the snapshot below from our Earnings Explorer, Ambarella (AMBA) has been on a triple play hot streak, but the stock’s price moves post-earnings have been weaker this year than the previous few reports. Nonetheless, AMBA sports 100% and 88% EPS and revenue beat rates, respectively, over 51 reports going back to 2012. That consistent success over an extended time frame is impressive.
You can read more about AMBA and the 16 other triple plays we covered in our newest report by starting a Bespoke Institutional trial today.
Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in these reports to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in these reports or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. This is not personalized advice. Investors should do their own research and/or work with an investment professional when making portfolio decisions. As always, past performance of any investment is not a guarantee of future results. Bespoke representatives or clients may have positions in securities discussed or mentioned in its published content.
Bespoke’s Morning Lineup – 6/18/25
See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“As long as the reason of man continues fallible, and he is at liberty to exercise it, different opinions will be formed.” – James Madison
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
The June “Fed day” is here, and US equity futures are currently just a hair above the flat line as of 7 AM ET. The typical Fed day sees the S&P 500 open higher by roughly 20-30 basis points. Below is a chart showing the S&P’s average intraday path on Fed days since Powell became Fed Chair back in 2018 (red line). The blue line shows the S&P’s average path over just the last ten Fed days. Powell Fed days over his entire tenure and the last ten meetings have looked very similar, with the S&P sitting on decent gains going into the 2 PM ET rate announcement. We then typically see a rally from 2-3 PM ET followed by a sharp sell-off in the last hour of trading. As we noted in yesterday’s Chart of the Day, anything but a last-hour selloff will be atypical for a Powell Fed day.
