The Closer – Record Backwardation, Supply Chain Stress – 4/7/26

Apr 7, 2026

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  • The move in Brent spot has now reached a completely unprecedented level of backwardation: more than $30 per barrel separates spot from the current front-month Brent future priced on delivery in June.
  • Supply chain indicators like the NY Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and the Logistics Mangers’ Index highlighted rapidly rising prices and stress in March.
  • Consumers anticipate gas prices to rise over 9% in the next 12 months according to the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.

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