See what’s driving market performance around the world in today’s Morning Lineup. Bespoke’s Morning Lineup is the best way to start your trading day. Read it now by starting a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium. CLICK HERE to learn more and start your trial.
“It’s not the pace of life I mind. It’s the sudden stop at the end.” – Thomas Hobbes
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
There’s very little going on in futures trading this morning as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both indicated to open ever so slightly higher. Treasury yields, meanwhile, are moving up about 3 bps across the curve, with the 10-year yield up near 4.10%. Crude oil is modestly higher, up 0.7%, but the big move remains in the natural gas space as prices are now above $5 for the first time in close to three years. In the metals space, gold and other precious metals are all lower, but the losses are contained at less than 1%. Even the crypto space is quiet as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are all up or down less than 1%.
In Asia, equities were mixed. While South Korea and China were marginally lower, Hong Kong finished up 0.7% while Japan surged 2.3%. Two catalysts behind the move were a strong 30-year JGB auction and a rally in tech stocks. Shares of Softbank rallied more than 9% following reports that it plans to increase its investment in OpenAI before the end of the year.
European stocks have been trading broadly positive this morning. The STOXX 600 is up 0.4%, and every major country’s benchmark index is trading up on the day. Germany is leading the way higher, up 0.8% as auto stocks rally following yesterday’s announcement from the Trump Administration that it would lower fuel-efficiency standards. Italy and the UK, however, are just barely hanging on to gains of 0.1%. In economic data, Retail Sales for the Eurozone were unchanged in October, and slightly higher than expected on a y/y basis (1.5% vs 1.4% forecast).
Getting back to Softbank, shares rallied 9% overnight, following a 6% gain on Wednesday. The chart below shows the performance of Softbank ADRs over the last year, and the last three months have been, to put it mildly, a roller coaster. Heading into today’s session, the stock is down 39% from its high in late October. Yet, despite that plunge, it was still 26% above its 200-DMA and 4% above where it closed 3 months ago. It’s hard to remember a stock that has plunged that much over six weeks, yet was still well above its long-term moving average and positive over the last three months.
The volatility in Softbank is also evident in the day-to-day moves of Softbank stock. With last night’s 9% rally, the stock has now moved 5% or more in 20 of the last 50 trading days. To find a period where the stock saw more volatility in its day-to-day moves, you have to go back to November 2008. In the stock’s entire history, there have only been three periods when the stock had more 5% daily moves in a 50-trading-day span. The other two were in December 2003 and May 2000, when there were 41 in 50 trading days! It’s not like Softbank is a small-cap stock either. With a market cap of over $150 billion, it’s the fourth-largest stock in the Nikkei 225!
