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Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After last trading to record highs last Monday, US equities are kicking off the week on a positive note once again this week as deal-making activity provides a boost to investors concerned about market valuations. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are indicated to open up by over 0.50%. Crude oil is down over 2%, which also helps, while gold is up over 1% and Bitcoin and Ethereum are both up close to 2% after some rough trading last week.
The pace of earnings activity will be incredibly slow this week, with Nike (NKE) the only notable report of the week (Tuesday). Economic data will pick up the slack, though, with multiple PMI readings, Consumer Confidence, and Non-Farm Payrolls.
Like the S&P 500, which hit an all-time high last week before pulling back modestly, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) also hit an all-time high last Monday and then pulled back a little bit but still managed to finish the week up by 1.2%. What’s been interesting about the SOX this year, though, is which stocks are leading. A list of some of the index’s best performers this year looks like a time warp from the late 1990s, with stocks like Rambus (RMBS), Micron (MU), Lam Research (LRCX), and Intel (INTC) all up over 75%! INTC was up over 20% just last week! Meanwhile, Nvidia (NVDA), the leader of the AI revolution, has been in the middle of the pack, managing a gain this year of ‘only’ 33%.
On a one-year basis, INTC’s chart looks a lot like ones from the 1990s as the stock has gone parabolic over the last two months, surging close to 90%!
On a two-year basis, INTC’s move looks more modest. Last Friday’s surge topped out just shy of the high it reached in the summer of 2024 right before it plunged 50% in a matter of weeks!
As impressive as INTC’s run has been in the last couple of months, it is still a shell of its former self. It’s still down close to 50% from its high in 2021. Additionally, while there has been a lot of talk lately about the market feeling like 1999, with INTC closing at $35 and change last Friday, it’s back to levels it first crossed back in January 1999!
Perhaps the most amazing thing about the recent moves in INTC is that last week’s gain of 20% was the third week in the last seven that the stock rallied 20%+. How crazy is that? Since 1985, there has only been one other week outside of the last seven that the stock rallied 20%+.
