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“History is a guide to navigation in perilous times. History is who we are and why we are the way we are.” – David McCullough

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Investors are being eased back into the market this morning, with futures showing modest losses after a more significant decline overnight. The market may be open, but with no economic or earnings reports on the calendar, things are relatively quiet to kick off the new week. That’s generally the case for the rest of the week too, with very few reports on the calendar in the next four trading days. That will leave plenty of time for investors to focus on trade, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says to expect several announcements in the next two days, and for those that don’t make a deal by August 1st, tariffs on their exports to the US will go back to the levels announced on April 2nd

The long holiday weekend is over, and it’s time for investors to get back to business as Q2 earnings season is right around the corner, and the tariff situation is likely to become more concrete. One thing bulls have going for them heading into this week is the seasonal calendar. Since WWII, the S&P 500’s median performance during the week after the July 4th holiday week has been a gain of 0.47% with positive returns 57.5% of the time. More recently, performance has been even stronger with a median gain of 1.14% and positive returns 70% of the time.