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“As long as the reason of man continues fallible, and he is at liberty to exercise it, different opinions will be formed.” – James Madison

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

The June “Fed day” is here, and US equity futures are currently just a hair above the flat line as of 7 AM ET.  The typical Fed day sees the S&P 500 open higher by roughly 20-30 basis points.  Below is a chart showing the S&P’s average intraday path on Fed days since Powell became Fed Chair back in 2018 (red line).  The blue line shows the S&P’s average path over just the last ten Fed days.  Powell Fed days over his entire tenure and the last ten meetings have looked very similar, with the S&P sitting on decent gains going into the 2 PM ET rate announcement.  We then typically see a rally from 2-3 PM ET followed by a sharp sell-off in the last hour of trading.  As we noted in yesterday’s Chart of the Day, anything but a last-hour selloff will be atypical for a Powell Fed day.