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“If you don’t have time to do it right, when will you have time to do it again?” – John Wooden
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
To view yesterday’s CNBC interview, you can just click on the image below.
Futures were comfortably higher leading up to this morning’s ADP Employment report, but the headline number came in weaker than expected at just +37K versus forecasts for an increase of 110K. This report often varies widely from the Non-Farm Payrolls report, but for investors looking for any sign that the economy is weakening, this gives them something to latch on to. Coming up later, we’ll get the May ISM Services report, which will also likely move markets. Within minutes of the ADP release, President Trump hit the Truth Social account calling on “Too Late” Powell to cut rates.
Despite today’s post-ADP weakness, US equities just recently moved back into positive territory for the year, meaning stocks worldwide are now pretty much higher across the board. But the performance gap remains wide. While Latin American and European equities are sitting on gains of more than 20%, and most other regions of the world are up by double-digit percentages, the US finds itself in the unusual position of looking up to its global peers.
In the short term, though, US stocks have been outperforming. Over the last week, Latin America and Europe are down while the S&P 500 is up nearly 1%. Recent performance looks like it’s been a bit of a mean reversion trade, though, as all seven regional international ETFs shown are between 4% and 7% above their 50-day moving averages (DMA).
Price charts of the regional ETFs over the last six months also illustrate some of the performance disparity on both a YTD basis and over the last week. Over the longer-term, the US is the only one of the seven ETFs shown that hasn’t hit a 52-week high in the last couple of weeks, but whereas Emerging Markets (EEM), Latin America (ILF), and Europe (VGK) have been moving in more of a sideways direction over the last week or two, the S&P 500 just hit a post “Liberation Day” high yesterday.
