Apr 5, 2017
The latest print of ADP Private Payrolls for the month of March came in at 263.5K, marking the third straight month that the US economy has created more than 240K private sector jobs. To find the last time we saw that, you have to go all the way back to late 2005/early 2006. The chart below shows the three-month moving average of ADP Private Payrolls going back to its beginning in 2002. As shown, from a peak in mid-2014, the pace of job growth had been gradually drifting lower. However, after a double-bottom in October, job growth has been accelerating once again. At its current level of 253K, job growth is at its highest level since June 2014.
What’s so noteworthy about the recent pace of job growth is that it has caught economists almost completely off-guard. For example, each of the last three ADP prints have exceeded expectations by 75K or more for an average beat of 89K. Since economists started forecasting the monthly ADP print in 2006, the only other three-month period where ADP exceeded consensus estimates by a larger average amount was from December 2010 through February 2011. Not only is that strong, but it’s also ‘hard’ data. You know…the stuff that skeptics keep saying isn’t keeping up with so-called ‘soft’ survey data.
Apr 5, 2017
Bespoke co-founder Paul Hickey appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Wednesday to discuss the markets. To view the segment, click on the image below.
Apr 4, 2017
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Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we discuss the current range in the ten year yield, the resignation today of Richmond Fed President Lacker, US Census trade data for February, and factory orders data.
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Apr 4, 2017
Bespoke’s Consumer Pulse Report is an analysis of a huge consumer survey that we run each month. Our goal with this survey is to track trends across the economic and financial landscape in the US. Using the results from our proprietary monthly survey, we dissect and analyze all of the data and publish the Consumer Pulse Report, which we sell access to on a subscription basis. Sign up for a 30-day free trial to our Bespoke Consumer Pulse subscription service here. With a trial, you’ll get coverage of consumer electronics, social media, streaming media, retail, autos, and much more.
