Apr 20, 2017
Commodity and cylical industrial names continue to lag along with gold mining ETFs, Australia, and a number of EM countries. Best performers over the last 5 days in the ETF universe we track are South Afria, Poland, and the GBP tracker FXB. Biotechs, long-term bonds, and REITs have also found good performance.
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Apr 20, 2017
Today’s report on manufacturing in the Philadelphia region followed the trend of its sibling in New York and moved lower in April, posting a larger decline than expected. While economists were expecting the headline index to retreat from March’s multi-month high of 32.8 down to 22.5, the actual reading was slightly lower at 22.0. While both the Philly Fed and Empire Manufacturing reports declined this month, the Philly indicator still remains above levels it was at the end of 2016, even as the Empire Manufacturing report dropped to levels not seen since November.
Breadth in this month’s report was also relatively weak, confirming the decline we saw in the headline reading. As shown in the table to the right, New Orders and Shipments both posted the largest declines, while the biggest increases came in Delivery Times and Inventories.
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Apr 20, 2017
This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone, but as the market has come under selling pressure in the last several days, bullish sentiment on the part of individual investors has declined. According to the weekly AAII survey, bullish sentiment declined to 25.71% from 28.97%. That’s the lowest weekly print since the election and a record 120th straight week of sub-50% readings. Looking at the chart below, bullish sentiment has clearly broken its string of higher highs that had been in place since mid-2016.
As bullish sentiment has declined, bearish sentiment has seen a small uptick, rising from 37.38% up to 38.70%. In this case, though, the chart of bearish sentiment doesn’t look nearly as significant as the chart of bullish sentiment shown above.
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Apr 19, 2017
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Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics? In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke Institutional clients, we take a look at weekly oil market data from the EIA as well as Gallup Weekly Economic Confidence.
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