We’ve highlighted this trend a number of times and most recently this morning as well as in last Friday’s Bespoke Report, but the hours from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern just haven’t been friendly to the bulls. Over the last 25 trading days, the S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY) has closed higher than its opening price on just 8 trading days. The chart below shows the historical rolling 25-day total of days where SPY finished a trading day higher than its opening price going back to 2009. During that span, there have only been a handful of periods where we saw similar amounts of selling pressure over a five-week period and only two periods where there was even more relentless selling.
The two periods where the rolling 25-day total fell even lower were in December 2011 and July 2015, while the only two other periods of similar selling pressure were in July 2010 and August 2017. In three of these four prior periods, the S&P 500 was quick to regain its upward trend, but in July 2011, it was another six months before equities finally bottomed and started to rally again.