As shown in the chart below, average intraday performance across each Fed day during Fed Chair Powell’s tenure has ended in the red.  In fact, only two of the prior twelve days have seen the S&P 500 close higher.  Since Jerome Powell first became chairman back in March 2018, intraday performance on Fed days has been dominated not necessarily by the results of the FOMC decision, but more so by Fed Chair Powell’s comments in the press conference. Initially, when the FOMC first releases its decision on rates at 2:00 PM EST, the market has actually been higher on the day on average.  But when Powell takes the podium at around 2:30 PM ET, traders start selling, and the S&P 500 typically tanks to finish the day negative.  Today, the S&P 500 is down ahead of the FOMC decision for the sixth time since Powell took the helm of the FOMC. Each time except for the last time this happened back in June saw a lower close on the S&P.  Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our Fedspeak monitor and much more.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email