As we discussed in last Friday’s Bespoke Report, US GDP data released last week was a bit of a mixed bag. The headline number solidly beat at a 3.2% QoQ clip, though, the underlying components were weaker including consumption and fixed investment weakening. Domestic Final Private Demand, which excludes government, trade, and inventories, came in 1.12% weaker than the Q4 data at 1.09% QoQ growth for Q1.
Putting any concerns from the underlying components of GDP aside, the US macroeconomic backdrop is still attractive relative to the 22 other countries tracked in our Global Macro Dashboard. In fact, at 3.2% YoY growth, US GDP growth is the fourth highest of these countries we track behind only emerging market countries China, India, and Malaysia. While China and India are seeing over 6% YoY growth, Malaysia is growing at 4.7%. The next highest GDPs behind the US are Russia and Singapore tied at 2.7% YoY. In other words, the US is blowing other developed nations out of the water in terms of GDP growth. Across the board, most US indicators we look at in the Global Macro Dashboard appear better than the average and median readings for the other countries. The US has the second highest growth rate of M2 money supply which theoretically should be further stimulative to the economy. In manufacturing, Industrial Production has held up fairly well as the US has the joint third highest growth (alongside Australia) of the 22 countries. While not explosive like India or Malaysia, retail sales growth is also better than a majority of other countries while the unemployment rate remains low. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to receive our Global Macro Dashboard and much more.