Below is a one-year chart showing the percentage of total world equity market capitalization that the US stock market makes up (from Bloomberg‘s world market cap indices). Heading into the 2016 Presidential Election, the US was losing market share to the rest of the world. But following President Trump’s victory, this reading shot up from just over 36% to nearly 38.5%. That’s a huge move.
Since peaking at the end of 2016, however, we’ve seen a steady drift lower down to just above 36.5%. At this point the US has only gained a very small % of share in world market cap since Trump’s victory night.
Below is chart that highlights shifts in world market cap since 2004 for the US, Europe, and Asia. As you can see, from 2004 through mid-2007, Europe had the second highest share of world market cap behind the US. But once the Financial Crisis hit, Asia eclipsed Europe, and at one point in mid-2009, Asia was just a couple percentage points away from the US. As the current bull market has progressed, the US has re-gained a sizable lead in first place, while Asia now sits solidly in second place. Europe, however, has been trending lower and lower…and lower.
Below is a table showing % of world market cap for a large number of countries, sorted from largest (US) to smallest (Qatar). Countries that make up less than 0.2% of world market cap are not included. In this table, we just wanted to highlight changes seen in % of world market cap since the Presidential Election last November 8th as well as since March 1st when the US equity market peaked. As you can see, the US has lost a full percentage point in share since March 1st, and it’s up just 0.05 percentage points since the close on Election night. Notably, it’s European countries that have seen a small bounce in share since the Election, while Asian countries like China, Japan, and Hong Kong have dipped. Start a two-week free trial to sample Bespoke’s premium research.