In a post earlier this week, we provided an update to the Citi Economic Surprise indices broken out by region. With economic data in the US continuing to disappoint this week, the Citi Surprise index (percentage of economic indicators that are beating vs. missing estimates) for the US is coming increasingly close to taking out its late April low and declining to its lowest levels in two years. What’s also notable about the current reading is that at the most recent reading of -67.5, the surprise index for the US is more negative than any other country or region that this series tracks.
Below we compare the Citi surprise reading for the US and Europe over the last twelve months, and what a reversal it has been. Heading into 2019, economic data in the US was coming in much better relative to expectations versus Europe, but ever since then, data in the US has been getting progressively worse relative to expectations, while data in Europe has been consistently improving. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive economic indicators monitor and stay on top of all the latest economic trends.