Our Economic Indicators database is one of the diamonds in the rough of our Bespoke Institutional offering. This interactive online database contains actual and estimated numbers for every single major US economic release going back more than 20 years. If you ever want to do economic analysis and need historical data, this is a very easy place to get it. You can find the database at our new Tools page shown in the image below. (Must be a Bespoke Institutional member to access. Start a two-week free trial now.)
In our Economic Indicators database, we show how often each indicator comes in either stronger or weaker than expected versus consensus economist estimates along with how the market and individual sectors reacted to each report. What’s also different about this database is that rather than show the revised readings for each economic report, we show the actual reading at the time of the release. This helps to see how the market reacted to the data presented rather than a reading that was revised a number of times.
Below is a chart showing the percentage of the time that each of the US economic releases has come in stronger than expected over the last 20 years. Of the 45 indicators that we track, only 11 come in stronger than expected more than 50% of the time. The economic releases with the strongest beat rates are Wholesale Inventories, Chicago PMI, ISM Services, and Non Farm Productivity.
The average “beat rate” for all US economic releases is 44.2%. The indicators that come in stronger than expected the least often are the NAHB Housing survey, Personal Spending, Average Hourly Earnings, CPI, Core CPI, and the Average Workweek. In the case of the CPI inflation reading, not having a strong “beat rate” can actually be considered a good thing!
On the flip side, below is a chart showing how often each economic release comes in weaker than expected. At the top of the list is the Chicago Fed reading that has come in weaker than expected 61.6% of the time over the last 20 years. Notably, the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report (the most widely followed jobs report each month) ranks second with a “miss rate” of 57%. Durable Goods ex Transports, Dallas Fed, and Pending Home Sales round out the top five.
The average “miss rate” for all economic releases is 45.3%. With an average miss rate of 45.3% and an average beat rate of 44.2%, the remaining 11.5% of reports have come in “inline” with expectations.
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