Earlier this week, we published a post discussing the recent trends in betting markets for the fall election and how Republican candidate Donald Trump was seeing quite a resurgence in his odds from the lows in early August. We also noted that every time Trump’s odds approached similar levels in the past, something would happen on the campaign trail, causing his odds to quickly revert back. In many ways, Trump’s odds of winning the election and the ‘resistance’ at around 30% was reminiscent of the S&P 500’s battle to break out above 2,100 in 2015 and early 2016. While stocks eventually broke through resistance, the question in the political markets on Monday was, could Trump get over the hump?
Since that post on Monday, Trump’s chances have continued to increase and as of this morning were at 33.7%, which is the highest level he has seen since he announced his candidacy. The odds for Trump to win in November are still only slightly better than one in three, and the betting markets haven’t always been the best predictors of actual political outcomes (Brexit vote), so Cher doesn’t have to pack her bags just yet, but the reversal of fortune in Trump’s candidacy still qualifies as a big turning point in the current election season.