The Department of Labor’s weekly report on initial jobless claims were expected to fall from 220K from 222K last week on a seasonally adjusted basis. The release surprised with stronger results showing only 216K initial jobless claims. That is the lowest print since claims came in at 212K on May 23rd. With this stronger print, a couple of impressive streaks continue. For starters, claims have remained at or below 300K for a record 224 weeks. Additionally, this week marks the 89th week at or below 250K. That ties the previous record of 89 weeks ending January 10th, 1970! Save a massive spike higher, claims will likely beat that record next week.
The less volatile four-week moving average saw a small increase of 1K this week to 218.75K. As we mentioned last week, the four-week moving average has been very stable in the past month. Since the May 30th release, the four-week moving average has only moved in a tight 3.5K range with this week’s print actually being at the high end of this range.
As is typical for the current week of the year, claims saw a sizeable downtick this week on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. The NSA number fell from 220K last week down to 205K. As is usually the case, that is well below the average for the current week of the year since 2000 of 320K. As we have mentioned in the past, this year has seen a significant number of weeks with YoY increases in the NSA data unlike what can be observed over the past several years. After last week saw another YoY increase, this week caught a break, albeit, the YoY decline was only 1K. So this week’s NSA claims number was just barely the strongest of the current cycle for the current week of the year. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive economic indicators monitor and much more.