It has now been over three months since the S&P 500’s last decline of 1% or more back on 10/9.  While it seems like an eternity, the current streak of 67 trading days is nowhere near any sort of record on either a long or short-term basis.  The chart below shows historical streaks without a decline of 1%+ for the S&P 500 dating back to 1928.  The record for the longest streak was back in 1963 when the S&P 500 went 174 trading days – a full eight months – without a 1% drop.  Even more impressive is the fact that in both the 1950s and 1960s there were numerous streaks of 100 or more days. For a decade that is looked back on as one with a lot of upheaval in the US, the 1960s was a period of relative calm for the equity market.

More recently, the current streak of 67 trading days doesn’t look all that impressive relative to streaks we saw back in 2017 and 2018.  Right after the election in 2016 and into March of 2017, the S&P 500 had a 109-day streak without a 1% decline, and then from late 2017 through January 2018, there was another streak of 112 trading days without a 1% drop.  Even in October 2018, there was another streak of 74 trading days.  In other words, in just the last three years there have been three longer streaks without a 1% decline than the current one.  In the S&P 500’s history, there have been 26 other streaks that have been as long or longer than the current one, and half of those went on to last at least 100 trading days.  Get access to all of Bespoke’s research with a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional.  You won’t be disappointed!

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