After weak manufacturing sentiment was reported by the Kansas City and Richmond Fed surveys over the past week, our tracking of the five different manufacturing indices suggested that ISM PMI was likely to come in much weaker than the 59.3 reported in November. The Chicago PMI released this morning had a very different message. As shown, it forecasts an ISM PMI only very slightly lower MoM. Of course, the Chicago PMI has lagged other surveys in recent months, as shown in the chart below. Still, it seems clear that the impact of stock market declines on manufacturing sentiment isn’t universal. The current reading for the Chicago PMI index is actually higher than 95% of readings since 1990, and higher than all but two months from the peak of the mid-2000s cycle.

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