Last week was a busy one for economic data. Of the 28 releases, the majority (16 data points) either missed estimates or declined relative to prior readings. The Chicago and Dallas Feds’ manufacturing indices kicked off the week with Chicago seeing a nice beat, but the opposite held true for the Dallas Fed which declined more than expected. The next and final input for our Five Fed Index—Richmond—was released on Wednesday and came in slightly below estimates. Housing data continued to show weakness across the board with both Case-Shiller and FHFA price indices falling short while new and pending home sales also fell—pending sales missed badly. The second release for Q3 GDP was on Wednesday with the aggregate number coming in right in-line with expectations, although consumption, trade, and government all were revised lower. Jobless claims hit a six month high. To cap off the week, the Chicago PMI blew away expectations, hitting the best level of the year.
Manufacturing data kicks off December and another busy week with ISM and Markit manufacturing PMIs releasing later this morning. It will be a hush Tuesday with no releases scheduled for tomorrow. Things are scheduled to pick back up on Wednesday with productivity numbers, the ISM and Markit PMI for Services, ADP Private Payrolls, as well as the Fed’s Beige Book report; although these are subject to change due to the National Day of Mourning in honor of former President Bush. With the government closing for the day, it is likely Nonfarm Productivity and the Beige Book will get postponed. Thursday will have trade balance numbers and the final print for manufacturing orders and shipments. Finally, on Friday we see the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report which is currently expected to come in at +205k. Consumer Credit then releases late in the day to finish the week.