This week was mixed for economic data with about half of indicators coming in positive and the other half negative. The major release early in the week was CPI data. The headline number came in line with expectations while Core CPI came in slightly lower YoY. Hourly earnings continued to accelerate; more confirmation of a tight labor market. Thursday was the busiest day of the week. Retail sales came in with a healthy beat. Also on Thursday, the first two of our five Fed manufacturing indices came in with Empire beating and Philly missing, but the internals were stronger. Today, we got one more of the five with Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing index beating estimates. Along with higher manufacturing production, we should expect a slight uptick in the ISM PMI for October, as we mentioned in Thursday’s Closer.
Next week will be a quiet one for economic data due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The first half of the week is all housing with the only release on Monday being the NAHB’s Housing Market Index, but more housing data follows Tuesday and Wednesday with housing starts, permits, and mortgage applications. Manufacturing data also releases Wednesday with transportation expected to drag down durable goods. Nothing will release on Thursday on account of Thanksgiving, but we cap off Friday with preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs.
As always you can check in on our Economic Monitor to get updated on the day’s economic releases.