Economic data released last week was pretty mixed. Major industrial releases including Empire and Philly Manufacturing as well as Industrial Production all came in better than expected. Housing, on the other hand, continued to leave a lot to be desired. Starts/permits and existing home sales missed, but fortunately, the NAHB sentiment index came in much more positive. Employment data from JOLTS and jobless claims all reaffirmed a very tight labor market.
Turning to this week, economic data will be back-end loaded. Things will start off quiet with only Chicago National Activity and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Indices released today and Tuesday. Things begin to pick up on Wednesday when Mortgage Applications and the FHFA House Price Index will both be released. More housing data will be released later in the day Wednesday with new home sales, which is forecast to see a huge decline. Markit PMIs will also come out Wednesday morning. The Fed Beige Book will round out the day Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday will be the busiest day this week with trade balance data, wholesale and retail inventories, durable goods, and jobless claims all coming out at 8:30 AM. As new home sales are expected to see a major decline the day before, existing home sales are estimated to come in unchanged from last month. Finally, the fourth input of our Five Fed Manufacturing Composite Index comes in with the Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Index; the last index (Dallas Fed) will come out the following week.
Preliminary GDP data will finish off the week on Friday. GDP and Personal Consumption are forecasted to fall alongside the GDP Price Index and Core PCE.