Our Stock Seasonality tool (available to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members) lets users see how various indices, sectors, stocks, and ETFs typically trade throughout the calendar year. When the tool is opened, it automatically populates the S&P 500’s median change over the next week, month, and three months.
When we opened up the Stock Seasonality tool today, we were greeted with the gauge below showing absolutely brutal seasonal trends for the next trading week. Indeed, from September 19th through September 26th over the last 10 years, the S&P 500 has seen a median decline of 1.37%. As the gauge shows, that’s as bad as it gets compared to all other one-week periods throughout the year.
Below is another snapshot that you’ll find when opening our Stock Seasonality tool that shows median sector performance over the next trading week. Over the last ten years, every S&P 500 sector has seen a median decline, with Materials and Industrials falling the most at more than 2%.
For the S&P 500 as a whole, the index has only gained from 9/19 to 9/26 twice over the last ten years (2016, 2010), which is pretty bearish considering the index has been in a raging bull market since 2009.