Our 2017 Bespoke Report market outlook is the most important piece of research that Bespoke publishes each year. We’ve been publishing our annual outlook piece since the formation of Bespoke in 2007, and it gets better and better each year! In this year’s edition, we’ll be covering every important topic you can think of dealing with financial markets as we enter 2017. And to say that 2017 should be an interesting year for asset classes would be an understatement given the huge rotation we’ve already seen in just a few weeks since the Presidential Election was held back on November 8th.
The 2017 Bespoke Report contains sections like Washington and Markets, Economic Cycles, Market Cycles, The Fed, Sector Technicals and Weightings, Stock Market Sentiment, Stock Market Seasonality, Housing, Commodities, and more. In this year’s edition, we’ll also be featuring our new “Trump Index” of stocks that we expect to perform best in 2017 based on the new administration.
Over the next few weeks until the full publication is sent to paid members on December 29th, we’ll be releasing individual sections as we complete them. Today we have published the “Seasonality” section of the 2017 Bespoke Report, which highlights the seasonal tendencies of large, mid, and small cap stocks, as well as individual sectors and additional asset classes.
While we never recommend investing based solely on seasonal factors, we do think it should be a part of the investing equation. Take the chart below, for example, which shows the cumulative performance in 2016 of how an investor would have performed by investing in the three sectors that have historically performed the best and worst in each month of the calendar year. Beginning at the close on 12/31 and through 12/12, an investor who purchased an equal share of the three sectors that historically do best during the upcoming month and then repeated the process at the end of each month would have a gain of 22.1% in 2016 compared to a gain of 9.0% for a strategy of buying the three sectors that have historically performed the worst in each month. Over that same time period, the S&P 500 is up 10.3%. So even in a year where we saw some wild swings driven by outside forces, a strategy of buying the seasonal winners more than doubled the return of going long the seasonal losers.
To view our full “Seasonality” section immediately and also receive the full 2017 Bespoke Report when it’s published on December 29th, simply sign up for a 30-day free trial to Bespoke Premium. It’s that easy!