Our new Stock Seasonality Tool lets you see how any asset class, index, sector, stock, or ETF typically performs over any time period throughout the year. Below we wanted to highlight a few interesting tidbits from a screen we just ran using the tool this afternoon.
First up is a snapshot of our S&P 500 Seasonality gauges, which always show how the index has historically performed over the next week, month, and three months from today’s date. As shown below, the S&P has done very well in the near term over the last 10 years. Over the next week, the index has posted a median gain of 1.12%. Over the next month, it has gained 1.77%, and over the next 3 months, it has gained 2.93%.
Drilling down a bit, we wanted to see how different country stock markets have historically done in the second half of March. Below we show the countries with the best median returns from March 14th through March 31st over the last 10 years.
Note that the US (S&P 500) has been one of the most consistently positive countries during this period with gains in 9 of the last 10 years. 2017 was the only year in the last 10 where the S&P fell from 3/14 through 3/31, and it only fell 0.12%.
While Russia, Turkey, and Hungary have the strongest median gains for the remainder of March, the Philippines and Malaysia’s stock market have gained during this period for 10 consecutive years!
You can also see how different ETFs typically perform for the remainder of March. Looking at US Group ETFs, we see that PBJ and IHI are the two that have gained 100% of the time from March 14th through March 31st over the last 10 years. PBJ is a food & beverage stock ETF, while IHI is a medical device company ETF. (If you hover over the ticker in our Stock Seasonality Tool, a description of the ETF shows up.)
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