There are only three sessions left in the month of October, and the S&P 500 enters them up 6.2% month to date. That marks the best performance through the final three trading days of any month since last November when the S&P 500 was up 11.2% MTD. In the post-WWII period, there have been 95 occurrences where the S&P 500 was up 5% MTD heading into the final three trading days of the month.  In those prior months, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 7 bps in the final three trading days which is below the average gain of 22 bps in the final three days for all months during that same period.  While there is that short-term underperformance, the last three trading days of the given month through the first week of the next month has averaged better than average performance (0.72% vs 0.61%).  As for where the S&P 500 goes from there, performance is mixed relative to the norm. Through the end of the following month, returns tend to again be worse than normal, but three months later the S&P 500 has averaged a nearly half percentage point larger gain than the norm.  Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email