The S&P 500 fell 1.7% today, breaking and closing below its 50-day moving average in the process.  It was the first close below the 50-day in a month (22 trading days) for the index.

Breaks below “support” at the 50-day get the juices flowing for market bears.  But does it mean further declines are really in store?

Since the S&P 500 was formed back in 1928, there have been 213 days in which the index closed below its 50-day after closing above it every day for at least a month.  Since the bull market began in March 2009, there have now been 18 occurrences.

Below is a table included in a report we sent to clients this afternoon highlighting how the S&P 500 has performed following similar breaks below the 50-day moving average.  To view the full report, sign up for a 5-day free trial to Bespoke Premium or Bespoke Institutional.

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