There was a fair amount of chatter last week about the fact that the S&P 500 has been stuck around the 2,100 level for much of 2015. In fact, outside of two days earlier this year and the period following the August sell-off, the S&P 500 been stuck within a 5% range above and below 2,100 all year. As a result of the narrow range, the S&P 500 has crossed the 2,100 level to either the upside or downside on a closing basis 36 times this year.
The table below lists the number of times the S&P 500 crossed various 100 point thresholds (to the upside or downside) from 100 up to 2100. The level that has seen the most crosses on a historical basis is 1,300 which has been crossed 75 times. After 1,300, the next most frequent levels crossed are 1,100 (71), 1,400 (65), and 1,200 (59). Of all the 100-point milestones, 2,100 currently ranks as 5th out of 12. That may not sound like much, but when you consider the fact that 2,100 was first crossed less than a year ago, that’s a lot of crosses! All the other levels that have been crossed more often than 2,100 did so over a period of ten years, whereas 2,100 has had less than a year to work with. Hopefully for anyone long equities, though, 2,100 sees its number of crosses end at 37.