Our interactive Stock Seasonality Tool (available to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members) allows investors to quickly analyze and track seasonal tendencies for any asset class. It’s an incredibly useful tool that we added for clients earlier this year. Looking at the Seasonality Tool earlier today, we noticed that depending on your time frame, there’s a little something for everyone.
The graphic below shows the S&P 500’s median one-week, one-month, and three-month returns (from today’s closing level) based on the last ten years of data. In the short term, the S&P 500’s median performance in the one-week period from the close on 4/23 through month end has been an impressive +0.82%, which is better than average compared to other one-week periods over the last ten years. While median returns in the very short-term have been good, the S&P 500’s median one-month return from the close on 4/23 has been a paltry 0.17%, which ranks as poor relative to all other one-month periods over the last ten years. Finally, looking out over the next three months, the S&P 500 has seen a median gain of 2.28%. That sounds respectable enough, but when you consider the fact that most of that time has been during a bull market, 2.28% only ranks as neutral relative to median three-month returns for all other periods throughout the year.
Looking more closely at just the next week, the chart below is also from our Stock Seasonality Tool, and it shows the median performance of S&P 500 sectors over the upcoming week. Leading the way higher, Technology has historically seen a median gain of 1.6% during the last week of April, but another five sectors (Utilities, Financials, Cons Discretionary, Industrials, and Materials) have seen median gains of more than 1%. While no sectors have seen declines on a median basis, Energy (+0.16%) and Health Care (+0.28%) have been the biggest laggards.
Again, both the chart below and the graphic above our from our Stock Seasonality Tool (available to Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members) and can be customized by time frame as well as different market cap sizes, asset classes, etc. Not only that, but you can also track seasonal trends for the stocks or ETFs in any custom portfolios you have created. Give it a try!