One of our Interactive Tools that subscribers have access to provides historical seasonality trends for the S&P 500. Our Seasonality Tool allows users to track historical trends of the broader market, ETFs, and individual stocks over pre-defined and custom time periods over the last ten years. Subscribers who have created custom portfolios can also track the names in these various baskets in order to see which ones have historically performed the best and worst over different time periods.
The gauges below are from the Seasonality Tool, and they show the S&P 500’s median performance over the last ten years for the upcoming week, month, and three months. For each time period, we show the S&P 500’s median change during that span as well as how that performance ranks relative to all other periods throughout the year. Using the one-week time period as an example, the S&P 500’s median performance over the upcoming trading week has been +1.15% over the last ten years. Relative to all other one-week periods throughout the year, it ranks better than 89% of them. For the one-month period, the S&P 500’s 3.11% median performance has been even better relative to other periods, ranking better than 94% of them. Over the next three months, though, the S&P 500’s median gain of 3.17% is not quite as strong, ranking better than only 63% of other three-month periods.
One sector that has been strong during the upcoming one-month period is semiconductors. In our Seasonality Tool, you can track that sector’s performance by looking at the ETF SMH, but below we wanted to summarize the performance of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) in the upcoming one-month period, not just over the last ten years but also going back to 1996. As shown in the table, from the close on 1/18 (or the most recent close before that if 1/18 wasn’t a trading day) through the close on 2/18, the SOX has seen an average gain of 3.53% (median: 4.35%) with gains just over two-thirds of the time. That’s more than twice as strong as the average gain of 1.3% for the SOX over all one-month periods since 1996. Over just the last ten years, the performance of the SOX over the next month has been even stronger with a median gain of 4.85% and gains in every year except 2018.
With a rally of 7% already YTD, the semiconductor group has had a strong run to start the year and heads into this week at overbought levels. It’s going to be hard to keep up at this pace, but at least one factor working in its favor is a seasonal tailwind. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options for our best research available.