Earlier today in our Morning Lineup, we highlighted the fact that there has been a pretty remarkable about-face in market performance at the index level between now and a week ago. The table below compares the trailing 5-day performance of the major index ETFs as of the close on 12/8 versus the trailing 5-day performance as of the close on 12/1. Whether you look at the table or chart, it’s pretty clear to see that performance over the last five days has been directly related to performance in the week prior. Indices that were down the most last week have bounced back the most this week, and indices down the least last week are up the least this week. With an r-squared of 0.8324, you can’t get much more closely correlated than that.
While there has been a close correlation between performance at the index level, at the sector level, the relationship — while still positive — hasn’t been nearly as strong. While some of the biggest losers in the week ending 12/1 like Industrials and Energy have been among the biggest winners over the last week, a sector like Real Estate that actually outperformed the S&P 500 in the week ending 12/1 is also one of the top-performing sectors over the last week. Additionally, Financials was the worst-performing sector on the way down last week with a decline of 6.6%, but it has also underperformed on the way up this week. As a result, while the r-squared of performance at the index level has been +0.83, the r-squared of performance at the sector level has been much lower at just +0.21. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options.