U.S. Retail Sales for June come out at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. Consensus economist expectations are for a month-over-month gain of 0.3%. Using our online tool for economic indicators — the Bespoke Economic Indicator Database — we found that Retail Sales have missed estimates for five straight months now going back to the start of the year. Over the last thirteen months, Retail Sales have missed ten times and beaten only twice. Below is a snapshot of the last thirteen Retail Sales releases from our database. For each one, we also include the performance of the S&P 500 and its ten sectors on the day of the release. At least for the last five misses in 2015, they haven’t impacted the market negatively. The S&P has been up on the day three of five times, with two of the up days registering gains of 0.96% and 1.26%.
Our full Economic Indicator Database contains Retail Sales data (as shown below) going all the way back to 1998. It also includes summary data of beat and miss rates and how the market typically performs in reaction to the beats and misses. There are more than 35 economic indicators included in the database, and it’s an extremely useful tool for active market participants. To check it out, sign up for a 5-day free trial to Bespoke Institutional today.