Below we show the odds of a September Fed Funds hike dating back to the start of the year.  The chart shows the odds of a move from either 14 or 15 bps Fed Funds effective (0-25 bps range) to 39 or 40 bps Fed Funds effective (25-50 bps range).  We adjust for the day count in September and the fact that Fed Funds effective has been 14 bps every day so far in September.  As shown, the betting odds of a hike this Thursday are somewhere between 15 and 25%.  As the last few sentences imply, calculating these probabilities is not a straightforward, cut-and-dry exercise.  The market could also prove horribly wrong!  That said, based on our methodology, there’s not much more than 5/1 odds that the FOMC will hike rates at tomorrow’s meeting.

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