Best and Worst Performing Stocks Since the Inauguration

It has now been one full month since Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as President, and you may recall that the general consensus after the big post-election rally was that investors should “buy the Election and sell the Inauguration.”  Even though the ‘buy’ part of the strategy was never mentioned until early January – well after the market rallied in November – the consensus trade was that all of the gains pre-Inauguration were being borrowed from the future and that investors would sell the news after Trump was sworn in.  It has only been a month, but so far the strategy hasn’t quite panned out.  Since Inauguration Day, the S&P 500 is up 3.3%, while the average performance of the 500 stocks in the index is even better at +3.6%.

In the tables below, we provide a brief summary of the S&P 500’s biggest winners and losers during the first full month under President Trump.  The first table below lists the 25 biggest winners over the last month.  Leading the way higher is Arconic (ARNC), which thanks to an activist investor, is up over 40%.  Behind ARNC, Seagate Technology (STX) is the only other stock up more than 20%.  Other notable names on the list include Apple (AAPL) and Cisco (CSCO).  In terms of sector representation, it was surprising to see relatively few stocks from the Financials (3) and Industrials (4) sectors as they have been considered to be among the biggest winners under a President Trump.  On the flipside, the sectors with the greatest representation are Technology and Health Care, each with six stocks.  Both of these sectors did poorly on a relative basis to close out 2016, but investors have started coming around to them regardless of the President’s not-so-positive-relationship with the sectors.

S&P 500 Best Performers Since Inaugusration

To the downside, 117 stocks in the S&P 500 are down since the Inauguration, and below we list the 25 worst performers.  Under Armour (UAA) has been the worst stock by far, losing close to a quarter of its value.  Behind UAA, eight other stocks are down 10%, including other consumer names like Mattel (MAT), Ralph Lauren (RL), and H&R Block (HRB).  In fact, Consumer Discretionary stocks have been especially hard hit under President Trump with eight of the worst 25 performers.  Likewise, even though he has promised to decrease regulation and ease drilling restrictions, eight stocks from the Energy sector also made the list of 25 biggest losers.  Perhaps there will be just too much oil coming out of the ground.  One sector conspicuously absent from the list of biggest losers is Financials.  While they may not be ripping under President Trump, Financials also haven’t been under pressure by any stretch.

S&P 500 Worst Performers Since Inaugusration

 

GET FREE ACCESS TO ALL OF BESPOKE’S RESEARCH FOR 14 DAYS

(No Credit Card Necessary)

S&P 500 Sector Weightings

Below is a look at current S&P 500 sector weightings using GICS standards.  As shown, Technology’s weighting now stands at 21.53%, making it the biggest sector by a wide margin.  The Financial sector is the second largest with a weighting of 14.8%.  Remember, though, that the REITs were recently given their own sector, which lowered the weighting of the Financial sector by over two-and-a-half percentage points.  If the Financial sector still contained the REITs, its weighting would be 17.6%.

weights

Below is a look at the change in sector weightings since Election day last November 8th.  As shown, the Financial sector has seen the biggest jump by far at 1.4 percentage points.  The only other sector that has seen a meaningful jump is Industrials (+0.20 percentage points).  On the downside, we’ve seen Consumer Staples, Energy, Health Care, Utilities, Real Estate, Telecom, and Consumer Discretionary all lose share since election day.

sinceelectionwgt

If we look at changes in sector weightings so far in 2017, things look quite different versus the change since Election day.  Since the start of 2017, the Technology sector has seen the biggest jump in its weighting at 0.76 percentage points.  The Consumer Discretionary has seen the next biggest jump at 0.17 percentage points.

While the Financial sector has seen the biggest jump in weighting since Election day, it has actually lost share since the start of the year.  So all of its post-Trump gains in share came in 2016.

ytdwgt

 

GET FREE ACCESS TO ALL OF BESPOKE’S RESEARCH FOR 14 DAYS

(No Credit Card Necessary)

ETF Trends: US Indices & Styles – 2/21/16

The TAN Solar ETF has been the best performer of the past week among ETFs we track, joining Coffee as a surprising name atop the big winners list. Biotech and Pharma have both legged higher while Brazil and Israel are both delivering strong trailing returns. At the sector level we’ve got Staples and Financials as the leaders. On the losing side, Natural Gas and Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Philippines) are at the top of the list while a number of other commodities also have weak trailing returns.

Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes.  If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect.  Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.

See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research.  Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.

Bespoke Brunch Reads: 2/19/17

Welcome to Bespoke Brunch Reads — a linkfest of the favorite things we read over the past week.  The links are mostly market related, but there are some other interesting subjects covered as well.  We hope you enjoy the food for thought as a supplement to the research we provide you during the week.

Baby Boomers

With $15 Left in the Bank, a Baby Boomer Makes Peace With Less by Timothy W. Martin (WSJ)

The aging Boomer cohort is no stranger to debt, a financial strategy which leads many of those later in life to cut it close during times of economic stress. [Link; paywall]

Boomers stuck in a circular unfunded liability they will never break out of… by Deux Et Vingt (Macro Ramblings From the ‘Burbs)

Are low interest rates and high stock prices all the same trade, driven by a massive cohort that is desperately trying to save enough for long retirements? [Link]

Food

Hot, Sticky, & Sweet by Keaton Lamle (Bitter Southerner)

The culture and iconic status of fried dough with a sweet topping in across the South. [Link]

International Relations

How Serious Is the Threat to Global Financial Stability From a Border-Adjustment Tax? by Brad Setser (Council on Foreign Relations)

Regardless of its impact on the domestic economy (which is hotly debated as Senators start to line up against the House’s preferred tax reform proposal), a BAT could have significant repercussions across the global economy purely thanks to its financial markets effects. [Link]

About Face: A History of America’s Curious Relationship With China, From Nixon to Clinton by James H. Mann (Foreign Affairs)

Only Nixon could go to China, and this week marked the anniversary of that remarkable pivot in US foreign policy during the Cold War. [Link]

Strange News

Blackstone CEO throws himself ‘the party of the century’ by Emily Smith (Page Six)

Camels, Mongolian greeters (???), a custom-built temple, Gwen Stefani, and the celebration of Stephen Schwarzman’s birthday party in Florida. [Link]

Howard Stern Sued for Broadcasting Woman’s Conversation With IRS by Eriq Gardner (The Hollywood Reporter)

Does broadcasting 45 minutes of an IRS agent’s call with a taxpayer make for good radio? We doubt it but that didn’t stop Howard Stern from airing it in 2015 and he’s now getting sued. [Link; auto-playing video]

Real Estate: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

How Resilient Is the U.S. Housing Market Now? by Andreas Fuster, Eilidh Geddes, Benedict Guttman-Kenney, and Andrew Haughwout (NY Fed Liberty Street Economics)

A comprehensive review of the fundamentals of the housing sector, from LTVs to delinquency at both a national and regional level. [Link]

Mortgage Rates Monday, Feb. 13: Higher; Lower-Credit Borrowers Discouraged by Deborah Kearns (Nerdwallet)

Much of the post-crisis improvement in mortgage applicant FICO scores is due to low-score borrowers not bothering to apply for loans in the first place. [Link]

Are gains in black homeownership history? by Laurie Goodman, Jun Zhu, and Rolf Pendall (Urban Institute)

After years of improvement in the lower rate of homeownership amongst blacks, gains started to reverse in the early 1990s and have dramatically underperformed other cohorts. [Link]

Appconomy

Dopamine Labs slings tools to boost and reduce app addiction by Jonathan Shieber (TechCrunch)

A new start up aims to use neuroscience to offer other app developers the key to hooking users, while trying to prevent PR disaster by also offering tools to reduce appdiction. [Link]

Defaults Slash Returns for Online Loan Investors by Peter Rudegeair (WSJ)

Rising defaults and interest rate increases are dragging down performance for the investment funds that feed capital into many online platform lending players. [Link; paywall]

Now Facebook wants to be your weather app by Michael Grothus (Fast Company)

As if we didn’t spend enough time collectively on Facebook already… [Link]

Elon Musk Is Really Boring by Max Chafkin (Bloomberg)

A traffic jam led Elon Musk to just start digging, thus reinventing an entirely not new form of transportation and earning himself a Blooomberg Businessweek cover. [Link]

Investing

Rob Arnott Says You’ll Be Sorry for Ignoring Smart Beta Warnings by Dani Burger (Bloomberg)

More sturm und drang about the risks of smart beta, which can lead to concentrations and correlation risk for investors. [Link]

Moments Of Truth

Oil Producers Promised Output Cuts. Here’s the Reality. by Brian Wingfield, Samuel Dodge and Hayley Warren (Bloomberg)

Some nice charts on the share of proposed cuts that have actually been met by both OPEC and non-OPEC nations following last fall’s deal. [Link]

It’s a Moment of Truth for U.S. Companies by Oliver Renick (Bloomberg)

With sentiment indices surging, is now the time corporate capex will finally start to accelerate? [Link; auto-playing video]

Congrats!

U.S. flight cancellations, baggage problems fall to historic lows by David Shepardson (Reuters)

In a rare bit of good news, airlines cancelled 1.17% of flights (a new record) and mishandled only 2.7 pieces of baggage per 1000 passengers. [Link]

Politics

The Rise and Fall of a K Street Renegade by Brody Mullins (WSJ)

The massive lobbying success, free-wheeling spending, and tragic downfall of a man that re-wrote the rules for corporations’ efforts to grab Washington’s attention. [Link; registration required]

Le Pen is on course to be France’s next president, fund manager says from AI analysis by Everett Rosenfeld and Nyshka Chandran (CNBC)

Le Pen’s poll numbers haven’t moved much but betting markets and some sort of “AI” (likely code for a series of linear regressions) are moving much more in her favor. [Link; auto-playing video]

GOP May Cap Insurance Tax Break as ACA Repeal Bill Nears by Anna Edney, Billy House and Arit John (Bloomberg)

One of the most interesting possible policy options we’ve seen so far around ACA repeal is the concept of corporate deductions on health care benefits, a source of significant distortion in US health care markets. [Link; auto-playing video]

Stephen Miller Is a ‘True Believer’ Behind Core Trump Policies by Glenn Thrush and Jennifer Steinhauer (NYT)

A profile of one of Trump’s closest – and most extreme – advisors. [Link; soft paywall]

Women

Q&A: Melinda Gates on the World’s Missing Data About Women by Megan Murphy (Bloomberg)

An interview with one of the world’s biggest philanthropists where she focusses on the challenges of improving outcomes for women when there is so little data to assess the lay of the land. Also an interesting look at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation more broadly. [Link; auto-playing video]

Have a great Sunday!

The Bespoke Report — 2/17/17

The screen below is one of many graphics included in our just-published Bespoke Report newsletter (included weekly with all of our membership packages).  It shows the recent performance of various asset classes using our key ETF matrix.  Note that the Mexico ETF (EWW) is up more than any ETF in the entire matrix since Trump’s Inauguration on January 20th!

If you’d like to read our thoughts on recent performance plus the rest of this week’s Bespoke Report newsletter, take advantage of our one-month Bespoke Premium free trial offer that includes our 2017 Outlook Report.  Sign up now at this page.

Have a great weekend!

assetclass

The Closer 2/17/17 – End of Week Charts

Looking for deeper insight on global markets and economics?  In tonight’s Closer sent to Bespoke clients, we recap weekly price action in major asset classes, update economic surprise index data for major economies, chart the weekly Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC, and provide our normal nightly update on ETF performance, volume and price movers, and the Bespoke Market Timing Model.

Sample

The Closer is one of our most popular reports, and you can sign up for a trial below to see it and everything else Bespoke publishes free for the next two weeks!

Click here to start your no-obligation free Bespoke research trial now!

ETF Trends: Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities – 2/17/17

Israel continues to outperform along with Solar, Bioetch, and Pharma. Turkey, the Netherlands, and Brazil also outperformed. On the losing side of the slate, natural gas prices have continue to drag lower while Energy-related equities plunge. Russia also suffered a painful week along with Indonesia and Mexico.

Bespoke provides Bespoke Premium and Bespoke Institutional members with a daily ETF Trends report that highlights proprietary trend and timing scores for more than 200 widely followed ETFs across all asset classes.  If you’re an ETF investor, this daily report is perfect.  Sign up below to access today’s ETF Trends report.

See Bespoke’s full daily ETF Trends report by starting a no-obligation free trial to our premium research.  Click here to sign up with just your name and email address.

Leading/Coincident Indicator Rises In January

In January, the Conference Board’s Leading Indicator for the US economy rose 0.6% MoM versus 0.5% MoM expected.  While the absolute change in the Leading Indicator was certainly positive, we prefer to look at how the Leading Indicator performs relative to the coincident indicator index.  The level of this reading isn’t particularly important but its direction is a very good advance warning of approaching recessions.  As shown in the chart below, the ratio between the Leading and Coincident Indicators tends to drop sharply immediately before and during a recession.  Over the last few months, the ratio has started to turn upwards again after a period of stagnation since the post-recession high print of 1.098 in June 2015.  A new high print, which looks quite likely after the 1.097 level printed this month, would be an indicator that recession isn’t likely in the near term.  With a number of other pieces of economic data suggesting a ramp up in business activity and consumer spending, the Leading/Coincident Indicator ratio adds to the case that a recession in US economic activity is still nowhere close.

021717 LEICEI

One Down, 47 (or 95) Left to Go

Given Monday’s holiday for President’s Day, today’s close will mark the end of President Trump’s first month in terms of stock market returns. Based on where the DJIA is currently trading, it was a very good first month.  As shown in the table below, the DJIA has gained nearly 4% during President Trump’s first month in office.  Somewhat surprisingly, relative to the 19 other Presidents that have assumed office since 1900, the DJIA’s return during Trump’s first month ranks as number six behind Johnson, Coolidge, Taft, FDR, and Bush I.  Perhaps the most surprising performance of the Presidents shown is Johnson and Coolidge, who saw gains of 7.11% and 5.69%, respectively.  The first month of Johnson’s tenure was the month that followed the assassination of a sitting US President (JFK), while Coolidge’s first month followed the sudden death of another sitting President (Harding).  Apparently, the stock market’s ability to shake off shocking political news isn’t just a phenomenon confined to the last 12 months.

First Month

 

GET FREE ACCESS TO ALL OF BESPOKE’S RESEARCH FOR 14 DAYS

(No Credit Card Necessary)

 

The First 100 Days: An Accessible Rally

It has now been 100 days since President Trump was elected last November and contrasting the headlines and appearance of turmoil in Washington, US equities have seen one of the steadiest and strongest rallies for a newly elected President on record.  Since Election Day last November, the S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY) is up just under 10%, but what is really interesting about the rally is where the gains have taken place.  The chart below breaks down the returns of SPY between market hours (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM) and overnight returns (4:00 PM through the 9:30 opening bell).  Often, when you see a big market rally, a lot of the gains come from ‘gaps’ where overnight news or events cause the market to open significantly higher, and unless you were long overnight, you miss out on the move.

What is notable about the rally since the election is that the majority of the gains have come during market hours.  As shown in the chart, the cumulative gain of SPY during market hours since Election Day has been a gain of 6.74%.  In other words, if you bought at the open and sold at the close every day, you would be up 6.74% and eliminated any possible risk of holding equities overnight.  Conversely, if you bought at the close and sold at the open every day since the election, your cumulative gain would be 2.7%, which is less than half of the gain from being long during the trading day.  In addition to being one of the strongest and steadiest rallies following the election of a newly elected president, the rally of the last 100 days has also been one of the most accessible too!

Overnight vs market hours

 

GET FREE ACCESS TO ALL OF BESPOKE’S RESEARCH FOR 14 DAYS

(No Credit Card Necessary)

Outlook

Categories

Archives

Latest Tweets