We’re basically right in the middle of the earnings off-season right now when only a handful of companies are reporting quarterly earnings each day. Bespoke maintains a huge historical database of quarterly earnings reports for nearly every stock traded on US exchanges. Clients have access to the database — called the Earnings Explorer — right on our website. The Earnings Explorer contains a full calendar of upcoming earnings reports, summary charts highlighting historical trends on earnings and revenue beat rates, guidance numbers, and historical quarterly results for individual stocks going back 20 years.
As shown below, the number of earnings reports by day over the next three weeks is minimal, and then the Q2 reporting period starts up in full force in mid-July. Click here to view Bespoke’s premium membership options for our best research available.
Below is a chart from our Earnings Explorer that shows the historical “beat rate” for all stocks that have reported earnings over the last five years. This reading shows the rolling 3-month percentage of companies that have reported stronger than expected EPS and sales numbers. Notably, the bottom-line EPS beat rate had been well above its historical average since late 2017, but it has just recently dipped below its average with a steep decline over the last three months. Conversely, the percentage of companies beating sales estimates has held steady over the last few months and is now higher than it was for all of 2019. Over the last three months, 61.5% of companies have beaten top-line sales estimates, which is five points above the long-term average of 56.5%.
We also monitor the “guidance spread,” which is the difference between the percentage of companies raising guidance and lowering guidance on a rolling three-month basis. As shown, after plummeting from only slightly negative levels as we entered 2020 to -17% at the end of May, the guidance spread has begun to increase quickly in June. Since the reading is still in the red, it means that companies are becoming “less negative” about the future.
One final indicator that we track is the median one-day percentage change of stocks that report earnings. Over the last three months, stocks that have reported earnings have seen a median one-day share price reaction of +0.20%. As shown below, that’s a huge increase from extremely negative price reactions to earnings that we saw in March and April.
Below we have taken snapshots of two pages from our Earnings Explorer tool that provides snippets of information you can easily review for the stocks you’re most interested in. To try out our Earnings Explorer free of charge, start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional today!