The Nasdaq is not only on pace for its best monthly return in three years (January 2012), but it also just had its 9th straight up day in a row.  While the current streak is just the first in over four years, and only the third during this bull market, streaks of nine or more straight up days for the index are not entirely uncommon.  In the 44 years that the index has been around, there have now been 43 streaks of nine or more up days in a row, or roughly one per year.

The table below lists the eleven prior streaks of nine or more up days in a row since the start of 1990.  While it may be tempting to say that the index is due for a breather after nine straight up days, prior instances don’t necessarily bear that out.  In the eleven prior nine day winning streaks since 1990, the Nasdaq averaged a gain of 0.48% (median: +0.53%) on day ten with positive returns 73% of the time.  For the sake of perspective, the average one day change of the Nasdaq on all days since 1990 is a gain of 0.05% with positive returns 55% of the time.  Looking out over the next week, the index has averaged a gain of 0.78% (median: 0.80%) with positive returns 64% of the time.  Finally, over the next month the Nasdaq has averaged a gain of 1.58% (median: 3.05%) with positive returns 81.8% of the time.

Due to space limitations, we did not include every occurrence since 1971 in the table, but in the shaded bottom portion we have included a summary of the Nasdaq’s returns for all 42 prior winning streaks of nine or more days.  As shown, the returns for the one day, one week, and one month periods are similar to the results we found looking at the period going back to just 1990.

5daytrial

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