Economic data may have taken a bit of a backseat amidst the FOMC meeting Wednesday and tariff headlines at the tail end of the week, but the US still had a heavy slate with 38 total releases.
Data was broadly weaker with almost twice as many releases coming in weaker (20) than stronger (11) relative to forecasts (or the prior release when there was no consensus forecast). The Dallas Fed kicked off the week with a weaker than expected reading on manufacturing activity, but it was an improvement from June’s level of negative 12.1. In other manufacturing data, on Thursday we got Markit and ISM PMIs which were mixed. While Markit was stronger, the headline reading of ISM was weaker; new orders did improve, however. Headline factory orders were also weaker, but excluding transportation they were unchanged. As forecasted, personal income and spending weakened while inflation came in at a slower than expected pace on Tuesday. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence indices were the main bright spot of the week with stronger readings across the board. Claims data continued to show a slower pace of improvement on Thursday as both initial and continuing claims came in above expectations. Meanwhile, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report was the most inline with expectations since October 2012, coming in only 1K below forecasts of 165K.
Economic data is much lighter next week. The non-manufacturing portions of ISM and Markit PMIs are due on Monday. JOLTS and consumer credit are out on Wednesday. Producer inflation gauges are set to be released Friday. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive economic indicators monitor and much more.