The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index kicked off this week’s busy macroeconomic data slate on a disappointing note with a still negative reading that was below forecasts. Weak data continued to come in on Tuesday with FHFA home price growth slowing to 0.1% and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing index reaching a multi-year low.  Existing Home Sales also came in weaker.  Preliminary Markit PMIs released on Wednesday came in below estimates and weaker than the previous month while the services portion saw the opposite results. The release of preliminary Durable Goods and Capital Goods on Thursday came in much stronger than both expectations and the May release.  Meanwhile, weekly labor data once again came in at a multi-month low.  We ended the week with stronger than expected GDP data, but it still showed the economy slowed versus the first quarter. Overall, economic data didn’t have the greatest of weeks with over half of the indicators released weakening or coming in below estimates.

Next week is a busy one when it comes to macroeconomic developments. The week starts off quiet with only the Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Activity Index out on Monday.  It is expected to rebound to -5 off its multiyear low of -12.1 from its June release.  Things pick up on Tuesday with the release of personal income and spending data which are forecast to fall 0.1%. PCE data, Pending Home Sales, and consumer confidence will also be out that day. Ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to show 170K added jobs in July, on Wednesday ADP will release their own employment data. Also on Wednesday, there will be an FOMC rate decision followed by a presser by Fed Chair Powell.  Markets are anticipating a 25 bps cut in this meeting. After digesting the results of this meeting, on Thursday ISM will release their manufacturing report for July.  In addition to the NFP report, the release of the June trade balance, factory orders, and the University of Michigan’s sentiment data will all round out the week on Friday.   Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive economic indicators monitor and much more.

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