This week’s economic data came in split down the middle with 12 releases coming in worse than the prior period or estimates and another 12 improving. A remaining 3 met expectations or were unchanged from the previous period. We noted this same pattern in our Matrix of Economic Indicators for April. The FHFA’s House Price Purchase Index for the first quarter was the first release of a shortened week coming in unchanged from the previous quarter at 1.1%. Monthly FHFA and Case-Shiller prices also came out on Tuesday with both showing slower home price growth. Later that morning the Conference Board’s readings on Consumer Confidence came in stronger than both forecasts and the April reading. The final release Tuesday, the Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Activity, disappointed at -5.3 versus expectations of 6.2. On Wednesday, the Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Activity index also came in below expectations but was stronger than the April reading. The second release of Q1 GDP was revised lower but less than expected with growth for Q1 now sitting at 3.1% QoQ SAAR. While consumption growth was stronger, that came thanks in part to inflation measures falling below estimates. Retail and Inventories grew more than expected in April as seen in their Thursday release. Pending home sales were also notably weak. Friday data was better with Personal Income and Spending numbers both beating estimates. Michigan Sentiment was the final release of the week with a reading of 100.0 versus forecasts of 101.5, both below the 102.4 reported in preliminary data.
With 34 releases, the data slate picks up next week. Monday we will get some important manufacturing data including the final data for May for the Markit PMI and ISM Manufacturing. Revisions for durable goods and the broader factory orders numbers for April will follow up on Tuesday. As next week is the first week of June, on Wednesday ADP will release their employment data for the month of May. This is expected to show fewer jobs created than April. The service portions of Markit PMIs and ISM will also come out Wednesday morning. In addition to the usual Thursday weekly releases, Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs for the first quarter are expected. The Employment Situation Report with its Nonfarm Payrolls number will round out the week in economic data on Friday morning.