Despite a light data slate, there were not too many bright spots this week as only four of the fourteen releases showed improvements from the prior period or beat estimates; the rest came in weaker or missed forecasts. The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index was the only release on Monday coming in weaker than both March’s reading and consensus estimates. Similarly, April Existing Home Sales was the only release Tuesday, and results were once again weaker than expected. While Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday were better than expected, Continuing Claims missed by 10K. Flash PMIs were very weak for both manufacturing and the services sectors. Friday morning, advanced manufacturing orders, sales, and inventories all disappointed (we covered in an earlier post). Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive economic indicators monitor and much more.
Activity picks back up next week with 27 releases on the docket. Due to Memorial Day holiday, markets will be closed, and no data is to be released on Monday. But on Tuesday things pick back up with multiple home price indices. The quarterly House Price Purchase Index for Q1 will come out in addition to the FHFA House Price Index and S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index for March. More housing data will be out on Thursday with Pending Home Sales. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence for May and the Dallas Fed’s Manufacturing Activity Index will also be released Tuesday, and both are expected to show an increase. The Richmond Fed will follow that up with their own manufacturing index on Wednesday, similarly expected to increase relative to April. In addition to the typical weekly data on Thursday, the second release of Q1 GDP will be out. While consumption and inflation are expected to be unchanged from the initial release, GDP is expected to be 0.1% weaker. Personal Income and Spending for April is due out in what will be a busy Friday. While income is expecting an uptick, spending data is forecasted to be considerably weaker. The Fed’s favored inflation gauge, PCE, along with the Chicago PMI and University of Michigan Sentiment will round out the week on Friday.