For the S&P 500, Santa comes a day late but not a buck short. As shown in the chart below and as we discussed in the seasonality section of the 2020 Outlook Report, the day after Christmas, December 26th, has been the day of the year that has most consistently seen the index finish higher. Of all December 26’s since 1945, the S&P 500 has closed higher 78% of the time. The next best days of the year have been November 24th and August 17th which have also gained more than three-quarters of the time. That is significantly better than the average for all days of the year which is just 53.07%.
In terms of the actual performance of the index, 12/26 is also one of the best days of the year on both an average and median basis. In fact, on average, the S&P 500 has closed up 0.37% on 12/26; the fourth best day of the year. As shown below, the only days of the year that have averaged better returns are 10/20, 10/28, and 11/24. October 28th is the best of these with a 0.44% gain.
In regards to the median performance, the day after Christmas is still in a top spot as the fifth best day of the year, typically rising 0.33%. The only stronger days of the year are 1/14, 4/1, 7/1, and 7/9. Of these days, 1/14 has been the strongest performer with a gain of 0.42%.
In the chart below, we created a composite intraday chart of the S&P 500 on December 26th since 1983 when data begins. As shown, pretty much through the entire day the index grinds higher with particular strength at the start of the day and in the final half-hour. Join Bespoke Premium now for our most actionable insights and market analysis. CLICK HERE to start a two-week free trial.