This morning, we highlighted Japanese Machine Tool Orders in our recap of overnight data in The Morning Lineup. We watch Japanese machine tool orders (MTO) data closely because it’s very well-correlated to global activity, released with little lag, and infrequently revised. As such, it’s a very good high frequency global indicator. As shown in the charts below, MTOs were up slightly MoM for both domestic and foreign orders as well as on an overall basis. That’s positive, but we have to caution that small one-off bumps in monthly data have appeared regularly of late and unless the data can go a couple of months without another lurch lower, it’s hard to get worked up about what it means for the global economy. For now, the results are less bad than they could have been but still not a reason to assume a huge reversal of fears over recession. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional for full access to Bespoke’s suite of global macro products.

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