Nonfarm payrolls missed by a mile this morning as the economy added 126,000 jobs versus expectations for a rise of 240,000.  This was the weakest payrolls number in over a year and the biggest miss relative to expectations since the recession.  In fixed income markets, the reaction was swift as Treasuries rallied hard, with the ten year declining over 11 bps in yield at one point this morning.  Below, we show our Countdown To Liftoff estimate of the market pricing for the first Fed rate hike.  As shown, in the space of three weeks expectations have moved from an October liftoff to a hike in January, the second time in six months we’ve seen an extremely sharp reversal of hike pricing.  Interested in more details on the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation Report?  Bespoke Premium and Institutional subscribers just got a full recap, including some surprising statistics on wages, sector employment breadth, and long-term views of the momentum in labor markets.  We also give a full recap of cross-asset reactions to the report in thin trading this morning.  Sign up for a five day free trial now to view!

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