As shown in the chart below of the number of companies reporting earnings by day over the next month, the next three weeks will be the busiest of the Q2 reporting period. (This chart is updated daily at our Earnings Explorer page. Our Earnings Explorer shows upcoming report dates and key earnings stats for all US companies set to report over the next 30 days. To access the Earnings Explorer, start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional.
Below we’ve compiled a list of the most volatile large-cap companies (>$28 billion market cap) set to report earnings this week. Each of the stocks listed has historically experienced an average one-day price change of more than +/-3.25% on its past earnings reaction days. For each stock, we include its expected report date, market cap, and year-to-date performance (%). We also include its historical earnings and revenue beat rate (% of time it has beaten consensus analyst estimates) as well as the percentage of the time it has raised guidance. Finally, we show its average one-day share price reaction to earnings reports throughout history and its average absolute one-day price change (earnings volatility).
There are no big reports scheduled for today, but tomorrow we’ll hear from Texas Instruments (TXN) and Visa (V) after the close. Visa (V) has one of the strongest EPS beat rates at 95.6%. Visa has historically averaged a one-day gain of 1.07% on its earnings reaction day (which would be Wednesday this week given that it reports Tuesday after the close).
Wednesday and Thursday will be extremely busy, led by Facebook (FB) and Tesla (TSLA) on Wednesday after the close and Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Intel (INTC) on Thursday after the close. Twitter (TWTR) reports Friday morning ahead of the open.
Along with Visa, both Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) have historically beaten EPS estimates more than 95% of the time. Atlassian (TEAM), PayPal (PYPL), and ServiceNow (NOW) are the three stocks on the list with the strongest revenue beat rates. ServiceNow (NOW) has also raised guidance more often than any of the stocks listed.
In terms of share price reactions, Facebook (FB) and ServiceNow (NOW) stand out as they have historically averaged a one-day gain of more than 3% following earnings. On the downside, Twitter (TWTR) has historically averaged a decline of 2.94% on its earnings reaction days. TWTR is also the most volatile of the stocks listed with an average absolute one-day change of more than 12%.
The stocks above are the most volatile of the large caps reporting earnings this week. Below is a list of the large caps that are the least volatile on their earnings reaction days. This list is littered with Dow 30 stocks including Coca-Cola (KO), Travelers (TRV), United Tech (UTX), Boeing (BA), 3M (MMM), and McDonald’s (MCD).
Tomorrow morning we’ll hear from Biogen (BIIB), Coca-Cola (KO), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Travelers (TRV), and United Tech (UTX). On Wednesday we’ll get reports from Boeing (BA), Northrop Grumman (NOC), AT&T (T), and UPS all ahead of the open. Hershey (HSY), 3M (MMM), and Raytheon (RTN) are a few of the big names reporting on Thursday, and then McDonald’s (MCD) will be the biggest of the least volatile blue-chips reporting on Friday morning. Start a two-week free trial to Bespoke Institutional to access our interactive Earnings Explorer and receive ALL of our premium equity research.